Russia Faces Tightening Fuel Supply Bottlenecks Amid Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Fuel supply bottlenecks are tightening in Russia, after Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries led to fuel disruptions in several regions.

And this could just be the beginning, with pressure on the fuel market expected to increase in the coming months. If drone attacks continue at their current intensity and damaged refineries are unable to return to normal operations, local shortages could escalate into a broader crisis.

According to publicly available sources seen by DW, fuel supply disruptions have been reported in more than 10 Russian regions in recent weeks. Some fuel stations have imposed restrictions or halted gasoline sales entirely.

'Logistical lockdown' in Crimea

The situation in occupied Crimea is particularly tense. Fuel shortages ensued after recent drone strikes disrupted traffic along the so-called "Novorossiya Highway," which links the peninsula to Russia's Rostov region and serves as a key supply route for fuel.

This "logistical lockdown," as Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has described the strikes on transport routes between Crimea and Russia, has forced Russian authorities on the peninsula to impose strict controls.

Premium gasoline is now only available in exchange for ration coupons. According to local media, major fuel station chains have stopped selling it to private customers for several weeks. Regular gasoline is limited to purchases of no more than 20 liters (about 5 gallons).

A few days ago, 15 filling stations in Russia's Krasnodar region on the Black Sea completely suspended fuel sales. This remains a small number compared to the roughly 1,000 stations in the region, according to data from the local authorities.

Where are the fuel shortages?

Complaints are multiplying on social media that gasoline is frequently running out, even at filling stations that have not made public any suspension of sales. Many users attribute this to an influx of motorists from Crimea traveling to Russia's Krasnodar region to refuel.

The governor of Krasnodar, Veniamin Kondratyev, has described the situation as "difficult" and referred to an "artificial surge" in demand.

Fuel shortages — though often not severe — are now affecting practically the entire country. In central Russia, isolated shortages have been reported at individual stations in the Kursk, Belgorod, Ryazan and Oryol regions. Even Moscow and the surrounding region have seen sporadic complaints.

Problems are also emerging in the northwest, including St. Petersburg and the Leningrad, Pskov, Novgorod, Murmansk and Karelia regions. Shortages have likewise been reported in Siberia and the Russian Far East.

In most cases, the disruptions involve smaller fuel stations that are not affiliated with major oil companies. It;s not a full-scale crisis but complaints are increasing, and gasoline prices have been rising steadily for several weeks — climbing by up to 0.5% per week.

What damage are drones inflicting?

Russia experiences fuel bottlenecks almost every year, but to varying degrees. In summer, demand for gasoline and diesel typically rises due to agriculture and the holiday season. In addition, oil refineries carry out scheduled maintenance during this period.

In 2024 and 2025, these factors were amplified by Ukrainian drone strikes, pushing disruptions beyond normal seasonal levels. This year, a crisis began to emerge even before seasonal pressures fully set in, as drone attacks started earlier and appear to have become more effective.

According to calculations by Bloomberg, eight of Russia's 10 largest oil refineries were targeted by drone strikes in May alone. Some facilities, including Lukoil refineries in Nizhny Novgorod and Perm, have been hit repeatedly.

Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at Finam, one of Russia's largest investment firms based in Moscow, said the attacks are affecting not only primary refining units, as in previous years, but also secondary processing facilities used to produce gasoline and diesel.

"Repairing these facilities takes months and is further complicated by sanctions that restrict the supply of equipment," he said.

Russian statistics on fuel production are largely classified. However, some data has been released that points to a significant year-on-year decline.

According to Russia's statistics agency Rosstat, production of petroleum products fell by 9% in April compared with April 2025. In May, the decline was even sharper, with Bloomberg estimating a 13% drop year-on-year.

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent research group, the Rosneft refinery in Tuapse has been particularly heavily affected by strikes. Between January and May, it reduced exports of petroleum products by 73% compared with the previous year. CREA estimates the resulting export losses at €1.7 billion (about $2 billion).

Russians prepare for a worsening crisis

Market participants are warning of a systemic fuel shortage if refineries continue to go offline.

"A significant fuel shortage is currently being felt only in Crimea. In the rest of Russia there are still reserves, but current supply is insufficient. If the situation does not improve, shortages will affect many more regions by late July or early August," a source in the fuel market told the Russian business daily Kommersant.

Russia's Energy Ministry has launched an "industry task force" as of June 8 to prevent the crisis from spreading. The body is intended to ensure the "stable and efficient operation of the country's entire fuel and energy complex."

Earlier, authorities imposed a ban on gasoline exports — a measure that has been used repeatedly. A subsequent ban on kerosene exports, however, was unprecedented. At the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, supplies of gasoline from Belarus have increased significantly.

Scale of the looming crisis remains unclear

Fuel prices are expected to rise, as they did last year, but not sharply, as retail gasoline prices in Russia are strictly regulated by the state. Some independent filling stations and smaller chains could temporarily close to avoid losses.

"Ukrainian drone strikes are causing significant costs for Russia's oil sector. They disrupt operations and reduce refinery capacity, increase repair and security expenses, and create logistical bottlenecks," said CREA expert Isaac Levi.

At the same time, he added, the impact on the Russian state remains limited for now. Oil that cannot be processed domestically is being exported. As long as the war in the Middle East continues to destabilize global markets, conditions for those exports remain favorable.

Ukrainian drones are also targeting Russia's export infrastructure, but so far these attacks have had no significant operational impact. According to Bloomberg, Russia's seaborne oil exports reached their highest level since the start of the war in early June.

This article was originally written in Russian.