Southeast Asian Nations Turn to Russian Oil Amid Strait of Hormuz Supply Concerns
Analysts warn Moscow could leverage emergency energy role to gain long-term regional influence
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- Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar are increasingly seeking Russian oil, raising concerns about Moscow potentially converting a short-term emergency energy supplier role into longer-term regional influence.
- Analysts warn Russia could use its position as an energy lifeline to secure currency of influence in ASEAN, as the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to pressure a region dependent on Gulf imports for over half its oil and gas needs.
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But analysts say the scramble for Russian fuel also raises a bigger question for the region: whether Moscow can turn a short-term role as an emergency energy supplier into longer-term influence there. The move by Asean members – including Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar – to seek Russian oil could lead to the “reshaping of regional alliances to achieve supply chain resilience”, Chester Cabalza, founder and president of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told This Week in Asia. Cabalza said there was a high probability that Russia could use its role as an “energy lifeline” in the region as an opening to secure the “currency of influence” in Asean, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to place pressure on a region dependent on imports from the Gulf for over half of its oil and gas needs. Southeast Asia produces 2 million barrels of oil of its daily requirement of 5 million barrels, forcing it to import the remainder to meet its energy demands, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Meanwhile, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that 84 per cent of crude oil and 83 per cent of liquefied natural gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia.
