Taiwan to Possess Over 1,800 Anti-Ship Missiles by 2029

Air Force personnel are preparing US-made AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles at Hualien Air Base. Reuters estimates that if US delivery proceeds smoothly, coupled with continued mass production of domestically produced Hsiung Feng missiles, Taiwan's total number of anti-ship missiles could exceed 1,800 by 2029. (Reuters)

[Compiled by Chen Cheng-liang / Special Correspondent]

Taiwan is accelerating its expansion of anti-ship missile capabilities. According to a Reuters report on the 4th, if US military sales and domestic missile programs proceed as scheduled, Taiwan is expected to possess over 1,800 anti-ship missiles by 2029. Multiple current and retired military officials told Reuters that these weapons will become an important pillar of Taiwan's asymmetric warfare, aiming to retain sufficient combat power to counter a Communist Chinese blockade or landing operation and increase the cost of invasion.

Reuters estimates, based on military sales documents, arms trade data, defense analysis, and interviews with Taiwanese officials, that Taiwan's future anti-ship missile forces will be composed of US-made "Harpoon" and domestically produced "Hsiung Feng" series. The total number of Harpoon missiles already delivered and planned for delivery is about 850, plus an estimated deployment of about 1,000 Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missiles, bringing the overall scale to about 1,850.

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Reuters pointed out that Taiwan has gradually adjusted its military buildup thinking towards asymmetric warfare in recent years, hoping to use a large number of mobile, dispersed, and relatively low-cost weapons to offset the People's Liberation Army's advantages in troop numbers and firepower. In addition to anti-ship missiles, drones and short-range missiles are also considered important components.

Anti-ship missiles build deterrence, aiming to prevent PLA landing

Ou Hsi-fu, Deputy Executive Director of the Taiwan National Defense Research Institute, told Reuters that if a sufficient number of anti-ship missiles are deployed, the Taiwan Strait can form a "kill zone" that poses a significant risk of heavy losses to the enemy fleet. He pointed out that Taiwan's goal is not to sink every PLA warship, but to prevent them from completing their landing mission.

The report indicated that the core of this operational concept is to ensure that some forces survive the initial missile and air strikes at the beginning of a conflict, and then launch strikes when the PLA fleet approaches the Taiwan Strait. Analysts supporting this strategy believe that mobile land-based anti-ship missiles are easier to disperse and conceal, increasing their survivability in wartime.

Reuters pointed out that some Taiwanese military experts view Ukraine's experience in using missiles and unmanned boats to attack Russian fleets in the Black Sea as a reference case for small forces confronting stronger opponents. The report also mentioned that Iran's ability to continue attacking regional targets and shipping during US and Israeli air strikes is also being closely watched by relevant researchers.

However, retired Navy officer Yu Hsiao-pin told Reuters that some of Taiwan's current anti-ship missiles are still deployed on warships or fixed positions, making them easy targets for initial strikes at the beginning of a conflict. He believes that improving mobile deployment capabilities remains an important future task.

In response, the Ministry of National Defense told Reuters that existing anti-ship missiles are deployed in a mobile and dispersed manner to maintain combat effectiveness; fixed positions also have protection and backup mechanisms, and can be converted to mobile deployment modes when necessary to enhance battlefield survivability.

According to the report, the ROC military is expected to establish a new Maritime Operations Command unit in July, integrating capabilities such as shore-based radar, anti-ship missiles, and drones. Multiple interviewed military experts believe that the purpose of these deployments is to enhance Taiwan's sustained combat capability when facing blockade or landing threats, and to gain more response time.