U.S. and Saudi Arabia Sign Civilian Nuclear Agreement Amid Proliferation Concerns

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have signed a nuclear agreement. The U.S. would provide technology for the Saudis to develop a civilian nuclear program. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once told CBS' "60 Minutes" that his country does not want a nuclear weapon, but if their longtime adversary - Iran - built a bomb, "without a doubt, Saudi Arabia would follow suit." Earlier today, we reached out to Matthew Bunn. He's a former adviser to the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Clinton administration, and he is now a nuclear proliferation expert at Harvard University.

Matthew Bunn stated that Saudi Arabia wants to make nuclear energy for domestic needs to export more oil and make more money. They also want to provide the foundation, over time, for having more options to move toward nuclear weapons, should they feel the need.

The United States wants a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia due to its vast oil reserves and role in the global oil market. Additionally, U.S. nuclear companies seek business, and the U.S. aims to expand nuclear energy globally to address energy poverty and climate change.

Regarding safeguards, the Trump administration dropped an insistence on Saudi Arabia accepting the broader set of international inspections included in the Additional Protocol. Instead, the Trump administration worked out bilateral U.S.-Saudi inspection arrangements, not yet publicly revealed, which apply only to what the U.S. would provide, not to Saudi Arabia's overall nuclear program.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously cosponsored legislation as a senator that would have required Saudi Arabia to confess to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, accept far-reaching inspections under the Additional Protocol, and accept a ban on uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing before any nuclear deal could go into force. Saudi Arabia has not agreed to any of these conditions in the current deal.

There is a global effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, which has been successful, with only nine states currently possessing nuclear arms. U.S. intelligence, pressure, and military capabilities are crucial to this effort. If Saudi Arabia moved towards developing a weapon, the United States would likely use various tools to pressure them. However, agreeing to this agreement, especially if it involves selling uranium enrichment technology, poses increased risks.

Iran already has a uranium enrichment program, which is a focus of ongoing tensions and a reason for Saudi Arabia's desire for comparable capabilities. Israel also possesses a nuclear weapons capability, though it does not acknowledge it.

This agreement may make negotiating a reasonable deal with Iran more difficult. If Saudi Arabia does not agree to far-reaching international inspections like those in the Additional Protocol, it will be challenging to get Iran to accept them.

Under the Atomic Energy Act, this deal goes to Congress for review. If Congress does nothing, it goes into force. To stop it, a two-thirds majority against it in both Houses of Congress would be required to override a presidential veto, which seems unlikely.

The discussion concluded with Matthew Bunn of the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.