UAE Exit from OPEC Could Intensify Market Fragmentation - Expert

MOSCOW, April 29. /TASS/. The United Arab Emirates' decision to exit OPEC could intensify fragmentation trends, increase the risk of sharp price fluctuations, and strengthen the role of alternative exporters, Nikolai Novik, expert at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics, told TASS. "It is important to note the potential consequences of such a move by the UAE. First, the departure of one of the largest producers, accounting for more than 12% of the cartel's output, undermines OPEC's ability to coordinate the market, which will reinforce the fragmentation trend that began with Qatar's exit in 2019 and reduce discipline within the bloc," he said. Second, without coordinated quotas, the risk of both oversupply — if the UAE sharply increases production — and shortages — if other countries fail to offset shocks — will rise. "In the current conditions of global instability, this could lead to more pronounced price volatility," the expert explained. Third, the weakening of OPEC will objectively strengthen the role of alternative exporters, primarily the United States and independent producers. "At the same time, the importance of bilateral energy agreements and regional alliances will grow, replacing the traditional cartel mechanism," Novik noted. "If the UAE model proves successful — higher revenues under an independent policy — it will undoubtedly prompt other OPEC+ countries to reconsider their participation and reshape the entire current system of hydrocarbon transit and consumption," he concluded. Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, 2026. According to WAM, the UAE's decision is in line with the country's long-term economic strategy.