UK Experiences Driest July on Record, Atlantic Cyclone Risk Emerges

England has experienced its driest July since records began in 1836, receiving only 6.5mm of rainfall – 10% of the country’s long-term meteorological average for the month. Wales also experienced its driest-ever July, while Northern Ireland recorded its eighth driest. Scotland was the only country in the UK not to set new records but still received only 69% of its average rainfall for July compared with the long-term average. Southern England faced the worst of the dry conditions with some areas, including the Sussex coast, receiving less than 0.2mm of rain in July. This resulted in widespread low moisture content within the soil, enabling temperatures to reach the high 30s celsius. Looking ahead, despite notable spells of rain in the north, parts of southern England may receive only the odd shower for the rest of August. Throughout the summer, forecast models have hinted at more unsettled weather reaching the south-east of England at a 10-day range. However, as time edged closer the rain was largely confined to north-western parts of Britain, failing to reach the south-east with any significance. With much uncertainty within forecast models, the risk of this dry period persisting is not out of the question. There is a disturbance in the Atlantic, approximately 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Centre has predicted an 80% chance of the cyclone forming in the next 48 hours as a short-lived tropical depression. If such a system does strengthen, it will become the fourth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and would be named Dolly. Regardless of any development, there will be a risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall in Lesser Antilles on Friday night and into Saturday. This year’s strong El Niño is expected to play a significant role in lessening hurricane activity within the Atlantic.