UK Schools Face Challenges with Falling Pupil Numbers and Teacher Recruitment

Daniel Kebede, the general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), told the BBC around a million pupils are being taught in classes of more than 31 children.

Between 2023 and 2029 primary pupil numbers are expected to fall by 6.8%, with secondary numbers stable, according to the Department for Education.

New government figures show a modest fall in the number of school teachers overall, and progress towards the government's target of 6,500 extra teachers which covers secondary and special schools, as well as further education colleges.

The latest statistics show 4,654 teachers in those settings, which represents solid progress against their target of 6,500 by the end of the parliament.

Overall, there was a fall in 2025 of 1,900 full time teachers in schools.

The government clarified in April 2026 that its manifesto promise of extra teachers does not cover primary schools or early years.

With primary pupil numbers falling, the government has cut its target for recruiting new teachers for the next school year by 23%.

Kebede said instead of cutting its teacher recruitment, the government should use the "historic opportunity" of falling pupil numbers to make class sizes smaller.

"At the moment we have the largest class sizes in Europe, a million children taught in classes of 31 or more", he said, adding that under the last Labour government teacher numbers fell more slowly than pupil numbers.

He said teachers were needed to deliver on government plans to support many more children with special educational needs in mainstream schools by 2030.

At North Mead Primary Academy in Leicester, almost half the pupils are on free school meals because they are from the lowest income families. Many also have special educational needs.

"We have had particular trouble trying to find a special trained teacher for our group of most vulnerable children," he said.

With the number of children coming into the school falling, he is also expecting his budget to drop as funding is per pupil. So he is juggling to find the right mix of teachers and support staff.

The pay offer for support staff has been confirmed for 2026-27 at 3.3%, which school leaders fund out of the schools budget.

Part of the solution at schools in this group of academies is training their own staff.

Sara McAdam, who is in charge of the training institute, said they were adapting to the falling birth rate.

"We're going to have to look at that and make sure that we're not recruiting too many primary trainees so that they aren't then able to be employed by the end of the year."

One of the new teachers at the primary school this year, Joseph Brown, trained through the academy trust's scheme after working as a teaching assistant.

His earnings have taken a leap onto the bottom of the teachers pay scale, which in England is around £32,000, and he is happy with that.

Brown said: "It's not necessarily something that you do for money. You do the job because you enjoy it."

All of this is the background for the teachers' pay wrangling, with the threat of a strike ballot on the horizon in the autumn.

The government is expected to announce the pay award within weeks, and the NEU will ballot if it isn't backed by funding rather than coming out of school budgets.