US Labor Market Sees Unexpected Job Loss; Bitcoin's Technicals Tell a Different Story

The U.S. labor market cracked harder than anyone expected. Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July—the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery, and a sharp miss against the 95,000 gain economists had penciled in. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% only because more people quit the labor force entirely. June's gain was revised to 20,000 from 57,000, and May was nearly halved. Markets read it as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep its hands off rates. Treasury yields fell, the dollar dropped 0.5%, and CME FedWatch showed the odds of a September rate hike sliding to 40% from 55% a day earlier. A softer Fed path is usually a tailwind for risk assets and crypto—but Bitcoin's chart shows a market that hasn’t reclaimed its trend. Bitcoin is trading at $64,938, up 1.06% (+$683) on the session, after a green candle closed near its high. It's compressing below its two key moving averages. The trajectory tells the story. BTC topped near $80,000 in mid-May, then slid to a July low around $58,000 in a clean downtrend through the spring. The 50-day EMA is below the 200-day EMA in a formation traders call a death cross. When the shorter average sits under the longer one, the medium-term trajectory still points down. Since the July low, the fall has flattened into a sideways coil, but price has not pushed back above either average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 54.6, indicating neutral momentum. The bull case would form if a daily close back above the 50-day EMA and the $66,000 whole-number resistance opens a run at the 200-day EMA ($64,000) and the cloud top near $72,000. More fundamentally, a softer Fed and a weak dollar give that push a reason to fire. However, the bull case is thin as Bitcoin’s price has failed to reclaim the 50-day line. The bear case: a break below $60,000 confirms the bears still own the structure and points back to the July low of $58,000. A daily close under that reopens the spring downtrend. On Myriad, a prediction market, traders price in nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin heads back to $55K before mounting any recovery towards $84K. For now, $65K is the line in the sand. Above the 50-day EMA, the July chop looks like base-building; below $60K, it looks like a bear flag. The jobs report gave Bitcoin the macro cover to rally, but the death cross says it hasn’t earned it yet.