World Cup Quarter-Final Predictions: Who Will Shine and Who Will Go Home?

It’s 1-1 in the 90th minute of the World Cup final and a chance falls to your star player. Who would you rather have on the end of it: Haaland, Mbappé, Kane or Messi?

Lionel Messi. As he proved in thrilling style against Egypt, Argentina’s No 10 still has magic in his boots even at the age of 39. While his penalty record of four from eight attempts is much worse than you’d expect, he is clinical when it matters most. EA

On a cold wet night in Stoke, I may be swayed to take Haaland. At this World Cup, I’m taking Messi. A sense of inevitability has been attached to him through Argentina’s first five games at this tournament - he’s scored in all of them - and who am I to argue that that wouldn’t continue on the biggest of stages. EB

Erling Haaland is averaging a goal every 14 touches at this tournament. He has scored on 38.9% of his shots, the best of any player who has at least 10 shots. If you’re looking for the person who’ll score the most spectacular goals, go with Messi. But if you want the best chance of getting the ball in the net, bang the drum and start rowing. BD

Right now, it’s Kylian Mbappé. Both he and Messi feel uniquely unsolvable and can bend games to their will. But I’ll take the younger man in the eighth game of a six-week slog. BAG

There’s a transcendental quality around Argentina, where Messi’s mere presence is enough to get any of his teammates to produce the best moment of their international careers when it’s needed. And he’s still pretty good at his own part, too. JR

Gotta be Messi. Even at his geriatric age, he hasn’t lost the ability to decide matches in a moment. He really wasn’t much of a factor for most of the proceedings against Egypt in the last 16 and, then, boom, there he was with the splendid half-volley. LS

Can I fudge this and say it depends what kind of chance? It it’s a penalty or a header, not Messi, otherwise definitely him. He gives that sense he is playing the game at a different pace to everybody else: quite apart from his technical ability, what sets him apart is his capacity to take the least difficult option to achieve the desired result in any circumstance. JW

Team most missed from the quarter-finals …

While it was sad to see all three host nations eliminated in the last 16, Japan were a lot of people’s dark horses before the tournament and they showed why in a thrilling opening game against the Netherlands before bowing out after giving Brazil a scare in the last 32. With a more favourable draw, they would have been contenders for the last eight. EA

Colombia. They were fun to watch in the group stage - rarely has a goalless draw left me thinking, “Wow, this team could win a World Cup” in the way I did after they held Portugal. And then they were handed pretty favourable knockout pairings, with Ghana first and a Switzerland team missing Johan Manzambi. Their last-16 performance was disappointing, and it felt like they could have advanced had they taken a few more risks in regulation. I’ll also miss their fans: the scenes of Argentina v Colombia, two of the best-supported teams in global soccer, in Kansas City would have been incredible. EB

Many of the African teams – Cape Verde, Senegal, DR Congo, Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire – were fun to watch. You could make a case for the USA in the hopes that they would have found the form they showed in their first two games. But Mexico would have been guaranteed to entertain for another round or two. BD

It sure isn’t the United States. I’ll say the Netherlands. They never quite hit top gear and paid dearly for their negative tactics against Morocco, but the tournament feels smaller without their history, color and chaos still in the draw. BAG

Is it gauche to just say any of the co-hosts? Every tournament admittedly feels a bit different once the home team is sent packing; a group (or three) playing with full stadiums of support is uniquely powerful. JR

Sigh. The Netherlands. I never did entirely trust this team, given their weird and very un-Dutch glut of world-class defenders and sparse corps of strikers. Nor did Ronald Koeman ever convince me that he was a modern manager equipped with the flexibility to turn tricky situations around. The writing was on the wall when they drew Morocco in the last 32. Sure, it went to penalties, but Oranje were clinging on from the start. But, like Morocco, they probably would have cruised past Canada at the next stage. LS

Senegal are the big regret. They got a tough group that seemed to damage their confidence, and then they were much better than Belgium in that last-32 tie only to throw away a two-goal lead with five minutes remaining. Belgium’s growth in the tournament is a good story, but Senegal looked a much better team for most of that match. JW

Dark horse to win …

Morocco have been seriously impressive under Mohamed Ouahbi, who has evolved the team that reached the semi-finals four years ago and were knocked out by France. Don’t bet against them gaining revenge when the two teams meet again. EA

It’s hard to single out a dark horse in a field of eight, but I’ll go with Switzerland. Gregor Kobel has 16 saves and conceded just three goals (0.6 per match, behind only Spain and France among teams left). If you split the eight teams into “favorites” - Spain, France, England and Argentina - and “surprises”, the Swiss have the best xG difference (4.9) of the “surprises”. We know they can defend. The question is can they score. EB

Six of the top eight teams in the Fifa rankings are in the quarter-finals. The exceptions are Switzerland (14th) and Norway (19th). Switzerland have benefited from an easy path to the quarter-finals and have shown no signs of contending, so Norway get this tag by default. If a top-eight team can be considered a dark horse, go with Belgium, who showed in their systematic destruction of the USA that the tactical and technical skills of their predecessors are still intact. BD

Norway still feel a tier below the favorites, but their internet-breaking striker is on a scoring clip that defies logic. Haaland has 27 goals in his last 14 competitive internationals and is the first player since Gerd Müller 56 years ago to score at least seven goals in his first four World Cup appearances. That’s enough to make anyone a believer. BAG

Maybe Zohran Mamdani was on to something about this Morocco side. They look so evolved from their run to the semi-final in 2022, embracing a pivot from underdog spoiler to a team who can control a match in most phases. Beating the Netherlands was no small feat, and they will reportedly get Ismael Saibari back after his first-half injury against Canada. JR

Are Norway really just a horse of medium complexion now? This Norwegian side is weird in that they’re only thought to be surprising because they hadn’t been at a World Cup in so long, but they have an awful lot of momentum riding along with them right now. They’re doing that thing where they’re winning even when they don’t play particularly well. If they can squeeze past England, I’d give them a chance against Argentina (probably?) in the semi-finals. LS

Switzerland. They somehow always manage to get further in tournaments than seems plausible; there’s something about them that seems to discourage proper analysis. And they can defend. Argentina cannot exist in this state of high emotion forever, surely, and then they’re a game against another familiar European side from the final. JW

Most important player left in the tournament …

In a tournament where the superstars have all come to the party, Messi has defied his advancing years, Mbappé has been unplayable and Harry Kane has carried on where he left off at Bayern Munich. But there is something about Haaland’s swagger after seeing off Brazil that makes him compelling viewing. England beware. EA

Kane. Without his goal against Panama, England might not finish first in Group L. Without his brace against DR Congo in Atlanta, England might not advance out of the last 32. Without his penalty and assist in the last 16, England might not survive the Azteca and beat Mexico. He’s their most essential piece. EB

Maybe it’s too obvious, but it has to be Messi. He has scored 70% of Argentina’s goals, some of them with a degree of difficulty that would make an Olympic diver shudder. He has put the team on his shoulders. BD

It’s tempting to overthink this, but it’s still Messi. Argentina remain a very good side, yet he is still the difference between “very good” and “repeat World Cup champions”. The Albiceleste can survive a poor half, even a poor 80 minutes, because they know the best player on the pitch only needs one moment. BAG

As Haaland goes, so may Norway. While the Norwegians aren’t among the top-ranked teams left in the tournament, Haaland should be in his comfort zone facing Marc Guéhi and Ezri Konsa before – presumably – Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero. The path to the final suddenly looks like a six-point week for Manchester City. JR

Michael Olise. He wasn’t quite so imperious against Paraguay in the last 16 as he had been earlier in the tournament, but then it’s doubtful that France will face the same kind of footballing nihilism again from any of the remaining teams. LS

Messi. He’s the player who can win games single-handed. If Argentina stay in games, he can win them. A youth coach of his spoke of the moments when he “got the face on”, as he did in that final quarter of an hour against Egypt. Once that happens, he’s effectively untouchable. JW

The coaching advantage goes to ...

Thomas Tuchel has to take a lot of credit for England’s backs-to-the-wall triumph in Mexico City and the German is the only manager left who has won the Champions League. But Didier Deschamps is unmatched in World Cup experience. EA

Deschamps. In his final stages in charge of France, he’s letting the stars run the show instead of managing them with a rigid and controlled approach. It’s worked wonders for their star attacking trio of Mbappẻ, Olise and Dembélé, and has made Les Bleus not only the best team at this World Cup but also one of its most entertaining. EB

Belgium coach Rudi Garcia outfoxed Mauricio Pochettino and came up with a game plan that neutralized a US team that had been flying high. BD

Luis de la Fuente. Spain’s talent is obvious, but the trust is the real story. Every player seems committed to the same idea: press together, defend together, suffer together and then let the ball do the rest. BAG

With apologies to Thomas Tuchel, the way De la Fuente has gotten full buy-in from his Spain players is truly rare. It’s an incredibly cohesive system, and their commitment to executing the game model helps Spain survive some thorny parts of their matches, as was needed against Portugal. If only they had a great striker to finish those sequences … JR

Mohamed Ouahbi. He had previously been a youth coach, and then managed Morocco’s under-20 and under-23 sides, before being promoted to his first job in senior management just four months ago. But he’s shown himself to be canny with a team who have turned over almost two-thirds of their players since the semi-final run in 2022. He has entered every game with a clear plan, and then it all seems to have panned out the way intended. Still, France in the quarter-final … LS

Thomas Tuchel. Maybe he deserves criticism for the way he sets teams up from the start, but it’s been clear against Croatia, against Panama, against DR Congo and against Mexico how his tweaks in-game have had a major positive impact – which is the complete opposite of his predecessor Gareth Southgate. JW

The semi-finals will be …

France v Spain; England v Argentina. EA

France v Spain; England v Argentina. EB

France v Spain; England v Argentina. BD

France v Spain; England v Switzerland. BAG

France v Spain; Norway v Argentina. JR

France v Spain; Norway v Argentina. LS

France v Spain, England v Argentina. JW

The winner will be ...

Spain 2-1 Argentina. Spain have been quietly impressive throughout despite drawing against Cape Verde in their opening game and have looked impenetrable at the back – always a key factor in determining the winners. They are possibly the only team who can stop France’s unbelievable firepower in the semi-finals, if Les Bleus can get past Morocco. England or Norway may think they have a chance against an Argentina team who have looked very vulnerable at the back. But they have Messi, and can never be written off. EA

Spain 2-1 Argentina. I picked Spain v Argentina as my final prediction before the tournament began and I’m still feeling OK about it. (It was written, in more ways than one.) Re: Argentina … I think they’ll face England in the semi-final, and both have had such “team of destiny” energy in their knockout-round comebacks that the winner there could depend on how the soccer gods are feeling on the day. Spain, on the other hand, have given me very little reason to doubt. A common thread between modern World Cup winners is a) conceding fewer than one goal per match and b) keeping clean sheets. Spain have done both. To be fair, they haven’t really faced an attack like that of any of the remaining quarter-finalists, but they’re effective at grinding out results. EB

France 3-2 Argentina. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. In a tournament in which every team has faced some challenges, the 2022 finalists have shown the greatest ability to win no matter what the circumstances. Mbappé and Messi are just as strong as they were earlier this decade. France will get revenge this time because Mbappé has more support around him. BD

France 2-2 England (aet, 3-4 on pens). No one ever said this game doesn’t have a sense of humour. France may be the class of the tournament, but knockout football isn’t always about being the best team. England have looked more vulnerable, but they are a deep side with rare institutional experience (by England standards) who have also shown a knack for surviving uncomfortable moments. Penalties have so often been the punchline; this time they become the payoff. BAG

Spain 2-3 Argentina. Argentina are the home-away-from-home team at this tournament with the co-hosts all bowing out and Messi is some sort of match-wrangling wizard. Helps that Lautaro Martínez has been more effective off the bench than he was in Qatar, too. JR

France 3-1 Argentina. This was my pre-tournament prediction for the final and I’m sticking with it. But I don’t think it will be a hugely competitive match. Because assuming they’ve beaten Morocco in the quarter-final and probably Spain in the semis, facing Argentina won’t be as much of a test. I don’t think there’s much of anything the Argentinian back line, who have already shipped four goals in the knockout stages, can do against that Mbappé-Dembélé-Olise triangle, plus whoever plays on the left. Spirit and experience will take you an awfully long way, but that’s simply too much firepower for them to handle in this rematch of the last Wor