Bitcoin trades near $65,978, below the short-term holder cost basis of $69,000, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting. Weak labor data and slowing core CPI suggest a less restrictive Fed, but rising oil prices and Treasury yields add complexity, making Bitcoin's rally conditional on the Fed's stance.
Bitcoin struggles below key on-chain metrics like the True Market Mean ($76.6K) and short-term holder cost basis ($72.2K). Long-term holders are realizing significant losses, with daily realized value from these sales peaking near $280M. While ETF net flows have improved, they remain negative, and trading volumes are substantially below prior peaks. The Fed's minutes suggest a cautious stance on inflation, leaving room for potential policy firming, which adds to Bitcoin's vulnerability.
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet purchased 2,823 Bitcoin in Q2, spending $222 million. The firm's holdings are down $1.5 billion, and it's joining other treasury firms in slowing purchases due to market conditions and eroding premiums.
Bitcoin's price has spent weeks below its estimated all-in production cost of ~$84,300, yet the network remains operational. This challenges the assumption that production costs set a hard floor under the price. Instead, the network's self-correcting mechanism adjusts difficulty based on hash rate changes, allowing it to function despite miners operating at a loss. The sector is diversifying, with large miners pursuing AI and HPC contracts to mitigate risks, while low-cost operators benefit from difficulty resets.
Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust purchased 130 shares of FedEx (FDX) at approximately $304 each, increasing its portfolio stake to 1.75%. Despite a 4% stock drop following 'noisy' guidance, FedEx beat revenue and EPS estimates, with management highlighting strong momentum in B2B and B2C verticals.
MicroStrategy acquired 1,587 Bitcoin for $100 million, funded by selling MSTR stock. The purchase occurred while BTC traded below the company's average cost basis of $75,656. MicroStrategy now holds 846,842 BTC.
Bitcoin’s onchain data suggests that the upside may not be over for BTC price, but resistance at $84,000 could delay the recovery.
Crypto markets turned euphoric as BTC traded above $80,000, but a rally through short-term holders’ cost basis is needed to cement the bull trend.
Bitcoin found support above a key investor cost-basis level as spot BTC ETF flows and spot positioning compressed BTC’s price range in preparation for the next trending move.
Bitcoin's surge to $78,000 marks a 26% recovery from its February low below $60,000, with profitability metrics SOPR and NUPL signaling the start of a new bull cycle. Analysts warn stiff resistance at $84,000, where 1.1 million BTC sits at break-even, could trigger selling pressure.
Bitcoin's recovery to $78,000 represents a 26% gain from its February low below $60,000, with profitability metrics SOPR and NUPL signaling the start of a new bull market. However, analysts warn that approximately 1.1 million BTC held at an average cost of $84,000 could create significant resistance and trigger selling pressure.
Bitcoin is trading around $76,800 after hitting $77,900 last week, facing resistance at the active investor cost basis of ~$78,000 and the spot Bitcoin ETP average cost basis of ~$83,000. The crypto market is supported by $1.4 billion in weekly fund inflows—the strongest since January—with U.S. flows dominating at $1.5 billion. Institutional demand from products like Morgan Stanley's new spot Bitcoin ETF and BlackRock's IBIT may absorb selling pressure at these resistance levels.
