Analysts Identify Indian Stocks for August Outperformance Amid Bullish and Bearish Bets

August's historical seasonality favors Indian equities, with analysts identifying key stocks. Derivatives data reveals fresh long positioning in Delivvery and Aditya Birla Capital. Jio Financial witnessed a bullish breakout, while Bajaj Holdings shows strong accumulation. Muthoot Finance is well positioned to extend its gains, analysts noted. Conversely, LIC Housing Finance faces bearish bets after a technical breakdown.

With August’s historical seasonality favouring Indian equities, analysts have identified stocks well placed to outperform based on derivatives build-up, though a few continue to attract bearish bets on weakening technicals.

BULLISH BETS

DELHIVERY

Change in OI in Aug Series: 16.99% Change in Price in Aug Series: 4.19%

RATIONALE: The stock has attracted fresh long positioning in the August derivatives series, said Dhupesh Dhameja, research analyst, Samco Securities. “The stock continues to trade above its 100-day EMA, highlighting a robust long-term bullish structure, while the recent decline appears to be a healthy retracement within the broader trend rather than a reversal,” he said. Dhameja said the stock has the potential to extend its up move towards Rs 530, while Rs 458 remains a critical stop loss, below which the technical structure would weaken.

JIO FINANCIAL

Change in OI in Aug Series: 1.83% Change in Price in Aug Series: 3.84%

RATIONALE: The stock has been consolidating in a symmetric triangle pattern for the past five months, said Vipin Kumar, AVP – Derivatives and Technical Research at Globe Capital Market. “On Friday, it witnessed a bullish breakout from the said formation with a significant rise in volume,” he said. He suggests adding long positions in its August futures around the Rs 255-250 levels, with a stop loss at Rs 240, for a price target of Rs 270-280.

ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL

Change in OI in Aug Series: 5.46% Change in Price in Aug Series: 2.65%

RATIONALE: The rise in open interest alongside a gain in price indicates fresh long accumulation in the August series, said Dhameja. “On the technical front, the stock is undergoing a healthy consolidation after a strong uptrend while holding above its rising 20-DEMA, highlighting sustained buying interest,” he said. “The ongoing price action reflects strong acceptance near higher levels, with the broader higher highhigher low structure remaining intact.” Dhameja said the structure suggests potential towards `445, while `384 remains a critical stop loss, below which the bullish structure would weaken.

BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INVESTMENT

Change in OI in Aug Series: 44% Change in Price in Aug Series: 5.25%

RATIONALE: Following a multiquarter corrective phase, the stock has established a durable base around its four-year mean, said Amit Trivedi, SVP, Institutional Equities Research at Yes Securities. “A decisive hold above Rs 11,000 is expected to strengthen bullish momentum, opening the path towards the Rs 12,500 zone,” he said. Trivedi suggests buying for a target of Rs 12,500, with a stop loss at Rs 10,850.

MUTHOOT FINANCE

Change in OI in Aug Series: 2.20% Change in Price in Aug Series: 4.45%

RATIONALE: Dhameja said the stock is well positioned to extend gains to Rs 3,450, while Rs 2,950 remains a critical stop loss, below which the breakout would lose its bullish bias. “The breakout follows multiple higher lows near the Rs 2,900 support zone, highlighting strong accumulation and improving demand dynamics. Price has also reclaimed the Rs 3,000 psychological mark, reinforcing the shift in short-term sentiment,” he said.

BEARISH BETS

LIC HOUSING FINANCE

Change in OI in Aug Series: 14.92% Change in Price in Aug Series: -3.32%

RATIONALE: The stock witnessed a bearish breakdown from the past two-and-a-half-month consolidation range, backed by higher volumes, said Globe Capital’s Kumar. “The breakdown was further supported by a significant rise in short positions,” he said. Kumar suggests initiating short positions on rallies around Rs 525-535, with a stop loss at Rs 548 and a target of Rs 490.

UPL

Change in OI in Aug Series: 1% Change in Price in Aug Series: 0.66%

RATIONALE: Following June’s decline, recoveries in the recent past remained short-lived, said Trivedi. “In the July series, the stock remained under pressure and witnessed a short build-up, with futures open interest rising about 26% on an expiry-toexpiry basis, and rollover stood at 96%,” he said. Trivedi suggests traders sell for a target of Rs 555, with a stop loss at Rs 632.