Arizona Primaries Offer Look at Voter Sentiment in Swing State

Arizona is the one state holding primaries Tuesday and offers a look at voter sentiment in a swing state, where Republicans narrowly outnumber independents and Democrats. The state went for President Trump in 2024 but elected a Democratic governor two years before that.

Republicans will be trying to flip the governor's office this fall while Democrats hope to pick up a couple of seats in the U.S. House, which could determine whether the party can wrest control from the GOP.

Republicans hold the House by just a few seats, and the party in the White House usually loses seats in the midterms.

Some of the key races could come down to who has the support of Trump or Turning Point USA, the conservative group founded by the late Charlie Kirk, who lived in Arizona.

Democrats vie to flip an open toss-up district

Arizona's 1st Congressional District is one of only 18 House seats in the country listed as a "toss up" in the Cook Political Report. In the Phoenix metro area, the district is currently represented by Republican Rep. David Schweikert, but he opted to run for governor this election cycle.

The front-runners in the Democratic primary are former state lawmaker and emergency medicine physician Amish Shah and former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods. It's a familiar matchup for Arizona voters. Two years ago, Shah beat Galán-Woods in the primary for the district, and then Shah lost to Schweikert in the general election.

Now, it's a new race. Both candidates say they have what it takes to appeal to independent and swing voters. Galán-Woods was a Republican until 2018 but now has the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the primary.

In the Republican primary for the 1st District, it's a battle between a candidate with Trump's endorsement and another who was a state lawmaker in Arizona's right-wing Freedom Caucus.

Former NFL kicker Jay Feely has the name recognition and the Trump endorsement. Former state lawmaker Joseph Chaplik is running further to the right. The race will test Trump's sway in the state.

There is another toss-up House seat in Arizona. That's the 6th District, currently held by Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani. He was first elected in 2022, but won his reelection bid in 2024 with 50% of the vote in the district that runs from Tucson toward the border with Mexico.

He's unopposed in the primary, as is Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a military veteran who served two tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan. They'll face off in November.

Republicans seek to unseat the governor who narrowly won in 2022

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is in a vulnerable position as a Democratic governor seeking reelection in a state that Trump won in 2024.

The Republican primary features two House members. Rep. Andy Biggs has Trump's endorsement and the endorsement of Turning Point Action, aligned with Turning Point USA.

Biggs is a longtime Trump loyalist who voted in Congress against certifying the election results in 2020. During the campaign, though, he's portrayed himself as someone who can appeal to Arizona's independent voters.

Polls show him as the front-runner over fellow House Republican Schweikert, who has won in that toss-up 1st Congressional District.

Hobbs is waiting to face the Republican nominee. She narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in 2022.

Secretary of state race raises election integrity issues

Arizona's top election official is currently Democrat Adrian Fontes, and he doesn't face a primary challenge. But Arizona has been a battleground over election laws since the 2020 election that President Trump lost and falsely claimed was rigged.

Two Republicans vie to face Fontes. State Rep. Alexander Kolodin participated in lawsuits aimed at overturning the election results and is backed by Turning Point Action. He faces Gina Swoboda, who became chairwoman of the Arizona Republican Party with Trump's support but has stopped short of saying the 2020 election was outright stolen, though she has said there were administration problems.

Camryn Sanchez of KJZZ in Phoenix contributed to this story.