Bloomberg Columnist: Global LNG Market May Face Surplus and Low Prices
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- Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas predicts a global LNG surplus and low prices between 2026-2030 due to expanded capacity.
- He doubts demand will match the projected doubling of production, suggesting prices must fall to incentivize consumption.
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A Bloomberg columnist, citing IEA data, suggests the global LNG market may soon face a surplus of supply and consequently low prices. This outlook is tied to planned capacity expansions and potential geopolitical developments involving Iran.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market may soon face surplus supplies and low prices, Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas said in his article.
If the deal between the United States and Iran does not fail and the Hormuz Strait traffic remains partly blocked, then the prices may start going down soon and will stabilize at a low level for a long time, the columnist said. The third wave of LNG plants capacity expansion will start during the period of 2026-2030. "That expansion is delayed -- maybe six months; maybe 12; maybe even 18 months. Whatever the length, it’s largely immaterial to what happens in 2030," Blas wrote.
The Bloomberg columnist cited data of the International Energy Agency, indicating that the total capacity of planned LNG projects worldwide is estimated at 700 bln cubic meters per year. All these projects are at the final approval stage. If they are implemented, LNG production worldwide will more than double from 600 bln cubic meters at present. "Would there be enough demand? I doubt it; or at least, I doubt it at prewar price levels. LNG costs will need to decline further to incentivize more consumption," Blas added.
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Global LNG market will face surplus supplies and low prices.
Sehr wahrscheinlich · Mittelfristig
LNG costs will need to decline further to incentivize more consumption.
Wahrscheinlich · Mittelfristig
Offene Fragen
- What specific terms of the US-Iran deal could impact the Hormuz Strait traffic?
- What is the exact projected timeline for the LNG plant capacity expansion?
- What are the specific demand drivers that are expected to lag behind supply?
- What are the potential consequences for energy producers and consumers if prices remain low for an extended period?
