Crude Oil Prices Fall, Stocks Rally After Trump Cancels Iran Strikes

Crude oil prices fell sharply while stocks and government bonds rallied on Monday after Donald Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and claimed peace talks were about to resume.

Brent crude was trading 5% lower at $83.47 a barrel by lunchtime, after falling as much as 7.3% to $81.55 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate dropped more than 5% to $79.47 a barrel.

Both global oil benchmarks jumped more than 20% in July after fighting between the US and Iran resumed, and as attacks on several tankers in the strait of Hormuz revived fears for the safety of vessels transiting the important shipping passage.

Trump said late on Saturday on his Truth Social platform that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked for time to complete a deal that would lead to “the Immediate, Complete and Total” reopening of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”. On Sunday, he said talks would start on Monday, a claim denied by Tehran.

Fuel prices for UK motorists continued to rise over the weekend at a time when families are heading off on their summer breaks. Petrol hit an Iran-war high of 160.85p a litre on Monday, surpassing its previous high on Friday, and diesel rose above 180p for the first time since 9 June, according to the RAC.

The motoring group’s head of policy, Simon Williams, said: “Unleaded has now risen more than 10p a litre – 7% – since bottoming out at 150.59p on 6 July while diesel is up 16p (15.8p) a litre, or 10%, almost fully reversing June’s 16.6p reduction which was the biggest monthly drop on record.”

He said prices at the pump should begin to stabilise this week, though diesel could reach 185p over the next week.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director of the broker XTB, said the drop in oil prices should help support markets. “This will ease inflation fears and could also act as a dampener on bond yields, which rose sharply last week, especially at the long end, where 30-year US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level for 19 years,” she added.

In a positive start to August, European shares rose and US stock futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street later.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.5%. Energy stocks slid 2%, while travel and leisure shares gained 2.1%. The UK’s FTSE 100 index gained 30 points by midday, despite being dragged back by negative reaction to AstraZeneca’s talks about a tie-up with its US rival Bristol Myers Squibb.

In bond markets, US Treasuries increased, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond down five basis points to 4.68%, a retreat from the highest level since January.

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at the investment platform IG, said: “The bigger focus is whether this week turns into a rinse and repeat of last week – with hopes of a deal collapsing as Iran digs in its heels and continues to leverage its control over the strait, potentially through an attack on a US base or a tanker transiting the waterway.”

Two tankers laden with Saudi oil crossed the Bab el-Mandeb strait out of the Red Sea over the weekend, while traffic in the strait of Hormuz slowed after reports of vessel attacks, according to shipping data.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre has reported three more tanker attacks since Saturday.

On Sunday, the oil cartel Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as Opec+, agreed to increase oil production by about 188,000 barrels a day from September, unwinding output cuts.

However, because of the export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, production increases by Opec+ have had little impact on prices.