Global Affairs Roundup: UN Peacekeeping, US-Israel Aid, Cuba Sanctions, EU-Caucasus Ties, Russian Oil Refining

The essence of all three options is the same, the key differences concern the size of the contingent, the budget and the geographic scope of the mission. The United Nations is deciding whether the force should be stationed only at key positions or patrols the entire border.

"The Council is currently considering these options," Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, told Izvestia.

"As I understand it, there is currently no clear consensus in favor of alternatives to the UN mission. What matters here is both the position of the Lebanese government and the signals we are receiving from within the Secretariat responsible for peacekeeping. It is not that they are particularly fond of themselves or believe that no one else could be equally effective, but those signals are rather concerning. It is unlikely that any alternative model involving the presence of armed forces from foreign countries would be as effective as the current UN peacekeeping mission operating in the country," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.

The conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah is directly shaping the future of the dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

According to Middle East expert Dmitry Bridzhe, the most realistic outcome is not the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, but rather an interim arrangement involving the cessation of active hostilities, the withdrawal of forces from the border, a stronger role for the Lebanese army and international monitoring. In his view, the movement's complete disarmament is highly unlikely in the short term because, for Hezbollah, it is not only a matter of security but also of political survival domestically within Lebanon.

Vedomosti: Debate over US military aid to Israel grows as public opinion shifts

The House Rules Committee of the US House of Representatives has removed an amendment to the National Security Priorities Resolution for fiscal year 2027 that called for ending the annual support the United States has provided to Israel through the State Department in various forms since 1948. The amendment was introduced by Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, who is set to leave office in January 2027 following the new Congress elected in the November midterm elections. Massie proposed eliminating the annual subsidies of up to $3.3 bln that Israel receives to purchase weapons.

Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that despite rising public criticism of Israel, particularly among younger Americans and Democrats, the strength of the pro-Israel lobby and long-standing US strategic priorities make any substantial change in Washington's support for Israel unlikely.

Because the committee's deliberations were held behind closed doors, there is no publicly available information on how many lawmakers supported the amendment. However, members of the Democratic Party's Progressive Caucus told Axios that the proposed reduction in aid is being actively debated within the party.

At the same time, while attitudes toward Israel have become more negative among the American public overall, this trend is far less pronounced among Republican voters. According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in April, 41% of Republicans hold unfavorable views of Israel, compared with 80% of Democrats.

Despite growing anti-Israel sentiment among younger Americans, US-Israeli relations are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes, Kamran Gasanov, who holds a doctorate in political science from the University of Salzburg, told Vedomosti.

"Yes, Washington has exerted pressure on the Israeli leadership from time to time during international crises, for example under former US President Joe Biden. Nevertheless, the White House did not impose sanctions on Israelis. Any US administration will first ensure the security of the Jewish state, and only then everyone else's," he said.

Lev Sokolshchik, leading research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper that the continued extensive influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the United States remains the primary reason why President Donald Trump and a significant number of other American politicians are unlikely to risk seriously undermining relations with Israel.

Izvestia: Washington tightens pressure on Cuba as bilateral diplomacy reaches deadlock

Diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States have reached an impasse. Washington has imposed a new package of sanctions despite Havana's market-oriented reforms, which the United States itself had previously promoted. At the same time, the United States has openly threatened the country with war. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the White House is considering radical scenarios for regime change, including the capture of the Cuban leader following what the article describes as the "Venezuelan model." At the same time, discussions are underway in the United States regarding the possible abduction of Raul Castro. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions, media reports emerged claiming that weapons were being distributed on a mass scale to Cuban civilians. However, Russian Ambassador to Cuba Viktor Koronelli dismissed those reports in comments to Izvestia, describing them as misinformation spread by the Venezuelan opposition.

The principal danger posed by the new US restrictions lies in the introduction of secondary sanctions, forcing foreign businesses to choose between maintaining ties with Havana or retaining access to the US market and the dollar. The blacklisting of logistics operator AUSA would paralyze customs operations, prompting shipping companies to avoid Cuban ports. This would jeopardize deliveries of food and medicine, which Cuba urgently needs amid its ongoing energy crisis. According to Alisa Kazelko, an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, this could push the island toward a humanitarian crisis, responsibility for which she attributes to Washington.

At the same time, the full implementation and adaptation of Cuba's reforms will require considerable time, a well-informed source in Havana told Izvestia.

"Given the sanctions and the blockade, the path of development, compared with China and Vietnam, will take longer. All these laws are currently in the implementation stage. This requires extensive discussion, time, and consideration of expert opinions," the source emphasized.

Under these circumstances, Havana is seeking support from foreign partners, including Russia, which is itself subject to Western sanctions.

"Today, the bilateral Russia-Cuba agenda includes a number of projects across various sectors of the Cuban economy," Russian Ambassador to Cuba Viktor Koronelli told Izvestia.

According to political analyst Igor Pshenichnikov, Donald Trump's administration is fundamentally not interested in Cuba's economic transformation and instead seeks to dismantle the current government. Alongside the economic blockade, Washington is openly threatening Havana with military action. The United States is considering scenarios involving the capture of President Miguel Diaz-Canel and former leader Raul Castro. In Pshenichnikov's view, the White House's threats represent both a genuine danger and an instrument of psychological pressure intended to test Havana's resilience.

Vedomosti: EU seeks deeper ties with South Caucasus during high-level regional visit

As part of her two-day tour of the South Caucasus, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Baku on July 1 for talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. This marks the head of the European Commission's second visit to the Azerbaijani capital since taking office in 2019. During the visit, she is expected to discuss cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the region in the energy sector, the development of trade, transport infrastructure and logistics, as well as support for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe the European Union is seeking to deepen economic and transport cooperation with Armenia and Azerbaijan while also using closer regional engagement to advance its broader strategic interests and curb Russian influence in the South Caucasus.

Europe is seeking to strengthen its ties with the countries of the South Caucasus against the backdrop of declining engagement between the EU and Georgia, political scientist and South Caucasus security expert Niyazi Niyazov told Vedomosti. In contrast to Tbilisi, both Baku and Yerevan are currently interested in expanding cooperation with European partners, particularly in the economic sphere, the expert said.

According to Niyazov, the talks will primarily focus on the development of international transport corridors passing through the South Caucasus toward Europe. As progress advances in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, Armenia is expected to take on the role of a transit country for goods heading to Europe via the Middle Corridor, a transport network connecting China and Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus. "At present, the EU leadership is not pursuing a confrontational policy toward either Baku or Yerevan, which could potentially support the development of mutually beneficial economic relations," the political scientist added.

Political analyst Artur Ataev suggested that, by strengthening partnerships with Armenia and Azerbaijan, European policymakers are seeking to advance their own interests in their broader campaign against Russia. "Azerbaijan is undoubtedly of interest to the EU as a supplier of hydrocarbon resources. With regard to Armenia, Brussels will likely attempt to persuade the Armenian leadership to remove the Russian military base from Gyumri, end the mission of Russian border guards along Armenia's borders, and reduce the country's economic dependence on the Eurasian Economic Union. Against the backdrop of the effective closure of the Russian market to Armenian exporters, Europeans will probably also offer Armenia access to their own markets. The question, however, is whether those goods will actually find buyers in Europe given the high level of competition," the expert told Vedomosti.

Kommersant: Russian oil refining expected to recover after June slump as market remains fragile

Russia's oil refining throughput, which declined to 4.1 mln barrels per day (bpd) in June, could rise by 7% to 22% over the next three months, according to Kpler. Even so, refinery utilization this summer is still expected to remain below 2024-2025 levels. Analysts polled by Kommersant anticipate that market conditions will normalize in August but caution that the market balance will remain tenuous.