IPL 2024 Playoff Race: Probabilities for Remaining Teams

Image credit: BCCI/IPL

NEW DELHI: With 11 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT can only miss out through the net run rate route and RCB have almost qualified while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. RR have a better than even chance while PBKS have a roughly even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. CSK’s chances have taken a beating with Friday’s loss and KKR and DC have really slim chances. There remain 2,048 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. We look at the probabilities:

GT are assured of finishing within the top four in terms of points (though they could be tied with up to four other teams), and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly is an impressive 90.2%

RCB have an 99.4% chance of finishing among the top four by points and an 83.4% chance of being among the top two

SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points is at 82.8% and they have a 38.9% chance of being among the top two

PBKS’ chances of ending up among the top four on points are at 50.3% but they have a mere 9.8% chance of finishing among the top two

CSK’s chances of being among the top four on points have nosedived to 35.9% following Friday’s loss and they have just 11.1% chance of ending up among the top two

RR’s chances of getting into the top four slots on points have improved to 60.4% and they have a 19.9% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots

KKR now have a mere 5.1% chance of making the last four and they can no longer even tie for the top two slots

DC’s hopes of making the playoffs are at a measly 6.1%. Like KKR they are no longer in contention for the top two slots

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 2,048 possible combinations of results remaining with 11 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, GT finish in the top four on points in all 2,048 possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 100% chance of being among the top four purely on points, but since some of them involve ties they are not yet guaranteed to qualify.

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