Uzbekistan Sees 8.5% Economic Growth in First Half of 2026, Driven by Reforms

Uzbekistan's economy grew 8.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by structural reforms since 2017, with significant increases in investment, exports, and sectoral growth, alongside improved credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch. Investment reached approximately €24.6 billion, with exports at around €12.7 billion. Services expanded by 16.9%, construction by 13.8%, industry by 8%, and agriculture by 4.7%. Moody's upgraded Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating from Ba3 to Ba2 in June, while Fitch kept its BB rating but shifted the outlook from stable to positive. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized the need for 9% to 10% economic growth to improve living standards for Uzbekistan's 40 million people. The ministry of economy and finance attributed the growth to a structural shift since 2017, including foreign-exchange liberalisation, trade opening, privatisation, and monetary reform. Saidkhonov Saidislombek noted agriculture's share of gross value added decreased from 27.3% in 2017 to 17.3% in 2025, while industry's share rose from around 22% to nearly 27%, and services climbed from 43.7% to 48.6%. Gross fixed capital formation reached €41.3 billion by the end of 2025, up from approximately €12.3 billion earlier in the reform period. The investment-to-GDP ratio increased from 19.5% to about 32%. Exports grew from roughly €10.6 billion in 2017 to €29.9 billion in 2025. Koba Gvenetadze highlighted the new central bank law's role in strengthening credibility and independence, enabling greater exchange-rate flexibility and inflation targeting. The presidential review focused on converting investment agreements into output and exports, with 1,617 projects worth approximately €187.3 billion from 52 high-level visits. Officials were instructed to address barriers in certification, working capital access, logistics, and market entry abroad. Regional employment agencies are expanding vocational training and linking infrastructure to job creation, with a focus on household incomes for the remainder of 2026. Andrin Fink cautioned that formalising employment would be a gradual process requiring significant effort and time. Formal employment provides access to social insurance, pensions, and other protections. An online commentary on the 2023 Labour Code aims to clarify its application outside major cities. Regional proposals on risks are due by 15 August, informing Uzbekistan's 2027 budget and plans.