Brent crude hits 4-year high as U.S. mulls Iran military action

Brent crude hit a 4-year high Thursday following a report that the U.S. military would brief President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran, raising worries that armed conflict could resume, and building on the American blockade of Iranian exports.

Axios reported that the U.S. Central Command was set to present Trump plans for possible military action against Iran, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter. Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the naval blockade will remain in place until a broader nuclear agreement is reached.

June futures for international benchmark Brent crude crossed $126 a barrel, before paring gains to $121.84 per barrel, up 3.4%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 1% to $107.98 as of 3:40 a.m. ET.

Goldman Sachs estimates that exports through the Hormuz chokepoint have fallen to just 4% of normal levels, while stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a continued U.S. blockade tightening supplies. Constrained Iranian exports and limited storage capacity could deepen supply disruptions if the blockade persists, the bank's analysts said, adding that boost to output from the UAE following its OPEC exit is likely to materialize more gradually over the medium term rather than offsetting near-term tightness.

Trump appeared to threaten Iran in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, saying the country "better get smart soon!" "Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!" Trump said. The post was accompanied by an AI-generated picture of Trump holding a gun with explosions in the background, and the words "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!"

Bill Perkins, chief investment officer at Skylar Capital Management, said oil markets are being driven by a mix of physical disruptions, geopolitics and investor psychology, with traders closely tracking tanker movements and political signals as the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on.

"We're kind of far apart from a deal, and maybe hostilities or a little bit more time is [needed] to open up the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

While strategic reserves and existing crude in transit have helped cushion oil prices, he described product markets as significantly more strained, highlighting sharp increases in diesel prices and ongoing logistical bottlenecks even if a ceasefire is reached.

Goldman has flagged emerging downside risks to demand, noting global oil consumption in April may be about 3.6 million barrels per day lower than February levels, with weakness concentrated in jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks.

Looking ahead, Perkins said oil could spike toward $140–$150 a barrel if disruptions persist, though elevated prices would eventually curb demand.