US Senators Warn Wildfire Betting on Prediction Markets May Drive Arson

A group of Democratic US senators has warned that betting on wildfires may increase the risk of arson as several states fight unprecedented blazes.

The boom of prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcome of future events, and the prevalence of wildfires are raising concerns about whether betting on natural disasters could drive criminal activity.

“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the nine senators said in a letter sent to Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Monday. ”There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.”

The lawmakers specifically mentioned reports about people betting on wildfires on Polymarket, but warned that this issue could expand to other prediction markets.

A spokesperson for another popular prediction market, Kalshi, told The Independent it does not allow betting on wildfires “because they create perverse incentives.”

As the Palisades and Eaton fires raged through Southern California in January 2025, people spent $1.2 million on the prediction site Polymarket, betting on questions such as how many acres the blazes would burn and when they would be contained, according to an Aeon article published in March.

Sylvie Andrews, who lost her home in Altadena to the Eaton Fire, told High Country News in late June that the bets are “morally reprehensible.”

“The fact that someone would feel OK doing that flabbergasts me,” she said.

The Palisades and Eaton fires killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 buildings.

A spokesperson for Polymarket told CNN in an article on the issue, “People turn to the news for commentary and they come to Polymarket for information.”

“While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most,” the spokesperson added.

In their letter to Chairman Selig, the senators also suggested that betting on wildfires won’t only increase the risk of someone purposefully setting a fire, but could also incentivize someone to keep the fire burning.

“By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading,” the senators wrote.

The letter was signed by Jeffrey Merkley and Ron Wyden of Oregon, Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff of California, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.

The Independent has reached out to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Polymarket for comment.

The senators noted in their letter that the US is facing another “record-breaking” wildfire season.

There were 49 fires actively burning in Oregon and Washington Wednesday, per Portland news outlet KATU. The five largest fires in Oregon have reportedly burned through about 1.2 million acres so far.

In Spokane, Washington, authorities have arrested convicted felon Aaron F. Farinacci, 37, on suspicion of first-degree arson in connection with the Old Trails Fire, the biggest of three wildfires that ignited Saturday, devastating the community. The motive for starting the fire remains unclear.

In their letter, the senators asked Selig a series of questions to be answered by August 14, including whether his agency believes betting on wildfires is in the public interest and whether it has any “guidance or planned enforcement” related to the issue.