UK inflation held steady at 2.8% in May, defying expectations of a rise. This suggests the Middle East conflict's impact on living costs may be less severe than feared, despite high fuel prices. Economists are downgrading inflation forecasts and questioning future interest rate hikes.
Russia increased mineral and crude oil supplies to ASEAN countries by 40% in Q1 2026 due to the Hormuz Strait crisis. Minister Maxim Reshetnikov announced plans for long-term contracts and infrastructure development to ensure energy security and competitive prices.
Brent crude prices are expected to stabilize between $70-75 per barrel by year-end, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, according to Maria Belova. She cited limited producer capacity and strategic reserve needs as factors preventing deeper price drops. A potential divergence between futures and physical markets is also noted.
US President Donald Trump announced an initial deal to end a Middle East war would be signed Sunday, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. Pakistan's PM confirmed a peace deal framework, but Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman cautioned against immediate signing, stating it would not be tomorrow.
Australia sees a 10% drop in electricity prices due to record renewables and battery use, transforming households into market producers. This shift offers lessons for other nations on energy market reform.
Australian government documents reveal plans for retail fuel rationing, including a "maximum transaction value per vehicle per day," as a worst-case scenario. This comes amid warnings from the International Energy Agency about dwindling global oil stocks.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that China is interested in long-term and increased oil supplies from Russia, a commitment Moscow is ready to fulfill amidst global market challenges. The announcement came during a Russian delegation's visit to China.
Russia's oil supplies to China rose 10% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. This follows a total of nearly 100 million tons supplied in 2025.
Angola is ready to increase crude oil supplies to South Korea to help mitigate supply issues caused by the Middle East crisis. Ambassador Sianga Kivuila Samuel Abilio stated that Angola could serve as a complementary supplier, directing spot cargoes to Korean refineries. The countries also discussed cooperation in critical minerals and infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor.
Russia and China are finalizing an agreement to increase Russian oil supplies to China via Kazakhstan. The deal, approved by the Russian government, aims to boost transit volumes, with potential increases noted by Transneft CEO.
Europe is unlikely to face a jet fuel crisis in the coming weeks due to price hikes encouraging refiners to redirect fuel cargoes. However, concerns persist for early fall if the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continues, impacting oil shipments.
The IEA noted that since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, global oil supplies have dropped by 12.8 mln bpd
Saudi Aramco said Q1 profit rose 25% as the Iran war disrupted global oil supplies and pushed up prices. The company shifted some exports away from the Strait of Hormuz via its East-West Pipeline, which is now operating at full capacity.
Japan also maintains participation in another LNG project, Arctic LNG 2, but due to US sanctions cannot receive gas from it
The price hike is attributed to the situation around Iran and disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz
Markets rally as US president announces ‘short’ pause to operation escorting ships through strait of HormuzBusiness live – latest updatesOil prices have fallen below $100 and stock markets rose as Donald Trump touted “great progress” towards a “final agreement” with Iran, and Tehran indicated it was ready to reopen the strait of Hormuz.The US president said he would briefly pause his “Project Freedom” operation escorting ships through the strait, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies but has been blockaded by Iran since late February, triggering a global energy crisis. Continue reading...
Under new agreements between the United States and Venezuela, revenues from the sale of Venezuelan oil are accumulated in accounts controlled by Washington
The dramatic growth in American oil exports stems from the navigation problems in the Strait of Hormuz, the key route for oil supplies to global markets from the Middle East
Kazakhstan "did not transport large volumes" of oil through the Druzhba pipeline, Vice Minister of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Sungat Yesimkhanov noted
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned on May 3 that oil prices, already at $120 per barrel, could rise further if Ukrainian attacks damage Russian export infrastructure. Oil supplies to the global market have declined due to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption to Russian supplies would push prices higher. Peskov commented on Western requests for Ukraine to avoid targeting Russian oil facilities, stating he was unaware if Zelensky rejected the request.
Residents of Schwedt, eastern Germany, fear economic collapse if the PCK refinery loses oil supplies after Russia announced it will halt Kazakh oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline from May 1. The refinery supplies 90% of Berlin's fuel and relies on Kazakh oil since Germany banned Russian imports in 2023. Rerouting via sea ports would cut capacity to 65-70%, potentially forcing staff cuts.
The shift also opens up new avenues for bilateral energy engagement, according to Yogesh Jambhale, Senior Research Manager at Rubix Data Sciences
The UAE's decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, 2026 could lead to additional oil production growth in the Persian Gulf starting in 2027 and increase downward pressure on prices after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, analysts told TASS. The UAE accounted for 11% of OPEC oil production in 2024 and 7.3% of OPEC+ output.
Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi emphasized that "it cannot be ruled out that this move by the UAE will undermine the efforts of OPEC and OPEC+ to control and regulate oil supplies and adjust production in line with global demand"
