Charles Schwab is reportedly planning to launch prediction markets for its customers, offering yes-or-no wagers on the S&P 500's performance. This move, in partnership with Cboe Global Market, expands into a growing sector already featuring platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
Charles Schwab is reportedly collaborating with Cboe Global Markets to launch prediction markets focused on S&P 500 performance. The markets will allow users to wager on the index's performance, similar to existing prediction platforms, and are expected to roll out in the coming months.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, which would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on policy outcomes, government actions, or elections via prediction markets. Violators face penalties and potential DOJ civil enforcement.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, once hailed as truth-seeking tools, face an identity crisis. While proponents see them as valuable for forecasting world events, a surge in sports betting and concerns over addiction, insider trading, and "gambling-like design" are souring public opinion and attracting regulatory scrutiny.
Wealthsimple is launching a prediction markets app, Wealthsimple Predict, in Canada this summer. The app, powered by Kalshi, will offer access to thousands of event-based contracts after receiving regulatory approval from CIRO.
Kentucky has sued prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging they operate illegal sports betting operations. The platforms contend their contracts fall under CFTC oversight, a stance previously supported by the Trump administration. This escalating state-federal legal battle is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are falling, leading to increased bearish sentiment on prediction markets. Odds favor dumps to $55,000 for BTC and $1,500 for ETH, with traders anticipating no rate cuts this year and potential hikes.
Rep. Bryan Steil is introducing a provision to ban congressional lawmakers and their families from betting on prediction markets related to policy, politics, and elections. The measure, part of a larger bill banning stock trading, includes a $2,000 fee or 10% of the transaction value for violations.
A Michigan federal judge ruled that sports prediction market wagers are not swaps under the CFTC's jurisdiction, denying Polymarket's bid to block state regulators. The case is headed to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.
Kalshi partners with StarCompliance to launch a monitoring platform for financial firms to oversee employee activity on prediction markets, amid increasing regulatory scrutiny over insider trading.
Prediction markets are seeing increased institutional adoption for hedging risks like tariffs, with trading volume doubling. However, issues with liquidity depth and dispute resolution, particularly concerning token-weighted votes and contract wording, pose significant challenges for large-scale adoption.
Prediction markets are seeing increased institutional interest for corporate hedging, offering direct bets on events like tariffs or regulatory changes. However, challenges with liquidity depth and dispute resolution mechanisms, particularly concerning token-weighted voting, pose significant risks for large-scale adoption.
Sports prediction markets are experiencing a surge in activity, with Kalshi setting a new daily trading record of $1.2 billion. Numerous companies, including Novig and ProphetX, are seeking CFTC approval to enter the space, which is already dominated by Kalshi and includes players like Polymarket, Robinhood, and major sportsbooks.
A single trader lost nearly $1 million on Polymarket after Cabo Verde drew with Spain in a surprising World Cup match. The trader bet on a Spanish win, a highly favored outcome according to oddsmakers and a Goldman Sachs model.
SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq with a 19% stock increase, surpassing a $2 trillion market valuation. However, its ambitious Mars colonization plans face long timelines, with traders giving an 18% chance of a human mission by 2030.
Bitcoin surged to over $65,000 following President Trump's announcement of a completed deal with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, investors remain skeptical about sustained market recovery due to weak institutional demand and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Japan's Bitbank warns crypto users that transactions with prediction markets like Polymarket may lead to account suspension due to potential conflicts with gambling laws. The exchange cited concerns over betting on future events for financial gain.
Bitbank, a major Japanese crypto exchange, has warned users that transactions with prediction market platforms like Polymarket could lead to account suspension due to potential violations of Japan's gambling laws. The exchange stated it may restrict accounts involved in such services, citing legal and regulatory risks for Japanese residents.
The CFTC is suing New Mexico officials to block state efforts to regulate prediction markets, arguing federal law grants it exclusive jurisdiction. New Mexico had sued Kalshi for allegedly offering unlicensed sports betting.
DraftKings reported rapid growth in its prediction markets business, with annualized consumer volume reaching $1.3 billion and total volume $3.1 billion in May 2026. However, established platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket process significantly higher volumes, highlighting DraftKings' late entry into a mature market. The sector's legal status as derivatives overseen by the CFTC is a key point of contention.
A coalition including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket has filed a lawsuit challenging Kentucky's new 14.25% excise tax on prediction market operators' transaction fees, arguing it's discriminatory, unconstitutional, and preempted by federal law. The coalition claims the tax is higher than on other industries and pushes users toward illegal platforms.
A new study estimates Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets in a 12-month span, with potential to reach $133 billion by 2030. The Coalition for Prediction Markets highlights risks associated with unregulated platforms.
Tokenization is a consistent growth area in crypto, with Kraken launching tokenized SpaceX IPO access via xStocks. Prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling in Q1 2026 volume, while former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried formally requested a pardon from Donald Trump.
Bernstein research suggests the 2026 FIFA World Cup will significantly boost prediction markets, potentially generating billions in new revenue. Coinbase and Robinhood are identified as major beneficiaries, with Coinbase already seeing substantial growth and Robinhood launching its own CFTC-licensed exchange.
