EU warns 1.3 million jobs at risk due to Middle East war

Up to 1.3 million jobs across the EU are at risk because of the ongoing war in the Middle East, European Commissioner for jobs Roxana Mînzatu said on Wednesday.

The warning came during the presentation of the 2026 Spring Semester Package, a bi-annual publication by the EU executive that provides guidance to the 27 member states on the bloc's economic priorities.

"Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk, particularly in energy-intensive industries," Mînzatu said at a press conference.

"Let me also underline that increased energy costs will have a particular negative impact on lower-income households in Europe, which is why we recommend that all member states take targeted measures so that they can support vulnerable groups," the Commissioner added.

The conflict, which began when Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran in late February this year, has already had tangible effects on the European economy, with energy prices surging as a result. According to the latest European economic forecasts published in May, the war has slowed European growth while pushing inflation higher.

Economic data on growth and inflation vary sharply across the EU, a disparity the Commission considers a threat to competitiveness.

Key priorities

The package dedicates significant space to employment, focusing on the promotion of quality jobs and how EU countries can tackle persistent shortages of skilled workers in strategically important sectors.

"Improving educational outcomes and better aligning people's skills with labour market needs remain key priorities, also to address labour and skills shortages which are particularly acute in strategic sectors such as cybersecurity, quantum, artificial intelligence and semiconductors," the Semester Package states.

At the press conference, Mînzatu said that 77 percent of European companies report that skill shortages remain a significant barrier to investment. She identified poor working conditions as the main driver of those shortages.

"We cannot attract talent, we cannot reduce shortages, we cannot improve people's earnings without making sure we have good working conditions," the Commissioner said.

A competitive push

Since the beginning of this mandate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made competitiveness one of the Commission's highest priorities as geopolitical uncertainties mount.

The latest Semester Package reflects this, focusing on how Europe can strengthen its position on the global stage.

In particular, the bloc wants to reduce economic barriers in the single market, create a more business-friendly environment for companies and capital, and minimise strategic dependencies – especially on China and the US.

To that end, the Commission is pushing member states towards a more robust industrial policy, greater investment in capital markets, and a simplification agenda that would, among other things, reduce administrative burdens both in the private and public sector.

In parallel, the Commission is working to accelerate economic reforms at the EU level, though progress relies heavily on the willingness of member states to act – a longstanding coordination challenge.