Flood-Affected Properties Outgrowing Broader Market in Value, Data Shows

As buyers accept known flood exposure in exchange for a lower price point, those properties are outgrowing the broader market in value, according to Cotality’s chief data officer Craig Dargusch.

“Our data shows that flood-affected properties trade at an initial discount, but the market is buying them anyway and growing their value faster than the rest,” Dargusch said. “Affordability wins today, but risk shapes tomorrow.”

The trend underscores the trade-off facing many buyers. Even after a prolonged housing downturn that has cut New Zealand’s median house price by around 16 per cent from its 2021 peak, homes remain expensive enough that some buyers are prepared to accept flood risk to get onto the property ladder. This is despite increasingly severe and costly extreme weather.

Cotality points to two regions hit by major weather disasters in recent years: Auckland, where floods affected thousands of properties in January 2023, and the central North Island region of Hawke’s Bay, where Cyclone Gabrielle caused an estimated NZ$14.5 billion in economic damage the following month.

In Auckland, where the median dwelling value sits at NZ$1.05 million, purchasing a home in a flood-susceptible area offers an upfront discount of as much as NZ$100,000, according to Cotality. House values in Auckland’s affected zones have grown 18.4 per cent since 2020, while undamaged areas saw values increase 13 per cent.