UAE's OPEC Exit: The Beginning of the End for Oil Cartel?

The United Arab Emirates' plan to ditch the oil producers' group Opec and strike out alone is being viewed as a huge blow for the organisation, with one analyst describing it as "the beginning of the end of Opec". It comes at a time of significant volatility in the oil market, with the US-Israel war with Iran triggering the biggest loss of oil supply on record, according to the World Bank. Here, in five charts, we explain how Opec influences oil prices and what the UAE's departure could mean.

1. What is Opec and who is in it? Opec - the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - was formed in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to defend the interests of major oil exporters by coordinating production to ensure steady revenue for its members. The number of members has fluctuated over the years. In addition to its five founders it includes Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and the Republic of the Congo. In 2016, when oil prices were particularly low, Opec joined forces with 10 other oil producers, including Russia, to create the wider Opec+ alliance.

2. What does Opec do? Opec aims to influence the global price of oil by agreeing how much its oil members sell. When they agree to sell more it is in an attempt to help lower prices by making sure supply is plentiful, and when they reduce supply, their aim is to keep prices high when demand is lower. A key example is in October 1973, Arab oil producers placed an embargo on a group of countries led by the US over their support for Israel during the Yom Kippur war. That policy came alongside a co-ordinated cut to oil production. Oil prices more than doubled, there was fuel rationing, and the significant knock-on effects were compounded by a second oil shock in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution. More recently, when the price of crude oil crashed due to a lack of buyers during the coronavirus pandemic, Opec+ slashed production to boost prices. Its response to soaring oil prices after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 was more muted - it pledged to raise production slightly, before slashing it later that year. In its first meeting since the UAE left Opec, Opec+ decided members would increase production by 188,000 barrels per day from June. Their statement, which made no mention of the UAE, said this was to "support oil market stability". Critics, including US President Donald Trump, argue it has used its influence to keep prices higher than they otherwise might have been by limiting supplies. Over the past few decades Opec's influence on oil prices has "varied", says Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot. A historic difficulty in Opec being effective in influencing the oil price is because when it has made a decision, individual members "often do not actually respect the commitment" and either produce more because they want a greater market share, or less due to technical difficulties. He says this has been "widespread" - mentioning instances of Kazakhstan and UAE increasing production to more than what was agreed.

3. UAE is one of Opec's top oil exporters The UAE was the world's third biggest oil exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025, according to the latest Opec data. This doesn't take into account current global events which have had a significant impact on oil exports, sending the price of crude rocketing. The Strait of Hormuz - a vital artery through which about a fifth of the world's supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas usually travels - has been effectively closed for eight weeks. While the waterway remains blocked, Carulli says losing UAE from Opec will have "zero" short-term impact on exports. Similarly, Opec+ members' decision to increase production is largely symbolic while movement is constrained.

4. How much oil does the UAE produce? The UAE is Opec's fourth biggest oil producer. According to the Opec data, the UAE produced 3.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2025. Saudi Arabia, Opec's de facto leader, produced over nine million barrels per day. Once out of the group, experts suggest the UAE could increase production by around one million barrels daily. Days after the UAE said it was quitting Opec, state-owned oil company Adnoc announced it was accelerating its growth through projects worth $55 billion between 2026 and 2028.

5. Opec's changing influence Opec is less important to world oil markets than it was in the 1970s, as it now holds a smaller share of internationally traded oil. Oil is also less important to the world's economy. As of 2025 Opec produced 36.7% of global crude oil - down from over half (52.5%) in 1973, according to its figures. Non-Opec countries, such as the US, Canada and Brazil have taken some of its diminished share, says Quilter Cheviot's Carulli. Globally, the US is the main oil producing nation - and has been since 2018 - producing 13.6 million barrels a day. last year. Russia - member of Opec+, is also a key player - in 2025 it was the second largest producer of crude at 9.1 million barrels per day. "Opec will continue, but with materially less ability to set prices," he adds.

Charts by Chris Clayton. Additional reporting by Jonathan Josephs.