The IEA has increased its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 0.2 million bpd, projecting a 3.7 million bpd fall this year to 102.6 million bpd. Supply could reach 110.1 million bpd in 2027, boosted by Middle East transit recovery and OPEC+ growth, though risks remain.
Australia is expected to avoid a recession despite substandard growth, while living standards are set to languish. In UK politics, Nigel Farage resigns as MP but will fight a byelection. The World Cup saw Argentina come from 2-0 down to beat Egypt 3-2 with a Messi goal.
Economists believe Australia will avoid recession despite a projected contraction in GDP per capita, citing falling oil prices and a tax cut. While inflation and interest rates remain concerns, future growth is anticipated, boosted by datacenters and AI.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly increased its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 0.2 mln bpd. However, it projects a significant decline of 3.9 mln bpd for 2024, with supply falling to 102.4 mln bpd. A recovery is anticipated in 2027.
Italy and Japan are strengthening diplomatic ties, focusing on supply chains and technology cooperation. The leaders aim to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and boost semiconductor manufacturing through joint ventures.
Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export terminal, is a focal point in the US-Israel war, with potential strikes threatening global oil prices and Iran's revenue. US President Trump has threatened to "assume total control" of Iran's oil industry.
Russia and Saudi Arabia, major oil producers, are strengthening ties through OPEC+ and joint ventures, despite Western sanctions on Russia and UAE's exit from OPEC. Their alliance aims to stabilize oil prices and explore economic diversification, though underlying tensions and differing strategic goals persist.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on G7 leaders at a Paris conference to help combat Iranian terrorism by targeting its financing. He proposed a new framework for "aggressive and targeted" sanctions, emphasizing the need for defined timelines and reviewing outdated designations to focus on sophisticated evasion schemes.
The IEA warns of impending oil price spikes due to rapidly depleting global inventories and supply losses exceeding 12.8 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, with peak summer demand expected to worsen the situation.
The IEA noted that since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, global oil supplies have dropped by 12.8 mln bpd
The International Energy Agency forecasts a 1.78 million barrels per day oil supply deficit in 2026 due to the Iran war's impact on Middle East production, despite a projected demand decline from price spikes and economic slowdown.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC is a group of major oil-producing nations. This group coordinates their petroleum production policies to help effectively manage global oil supply and influence crude prices.
A request for offers to ship 235,000 barrels of jet fuel from Cherry Point, Washington to Subic Bay in the Philippines, and a separate tender for 260,000 barrels to Yokose, Japan, illustrate the disruption to global oil supply chains caused by the war in Iran. The shipments scheduled for May and June add to a growing trend of American fuel heading to regions typically reliant on supplies from the Strait of Hormuz, which has been constrained by the Middle East conflict.
Unusual cargoes of military-grade jet fuel (JP-5) and diesel (F-76) are being shipped from Cherry Point, Washington to Subic Bay in the Philippines and Yokose, Japan, illustrating how the Iran war has disrupted global oil supply chains. A 235,000-barrel jet fuel cargo to Subic Bay and a 260,000-barrel cargo to Sasebo represent a growing trend of American fuel heading to regions typically reliant on Strait of Hormuz supplies. Only four JP-5 shipments have departed the US since 2017, highlighting the unprecedented nature of these voyages amid a global jet fuel crunch.
Asian markets mixed as investors weighed US-Iran peace talk hopes against geopolitical risks and elevated oil prices. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1.1%, South Korea's Kospi jumped 1.8%, while Hong Kong and Shanghai slipped. Oil prices hovered near $95/barrel despite slight declines, with markets watching Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
