The IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% due to the energy shock from the US-Iran war, despite a tech-driven boom. Inflation is also expected to rise. Oil prices surged amid renewed US strikes on Iran.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised South Korea's economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.6%, up from 1.9% in April, driven by strong global AI-related demand. The ADB also projects stable private consumption and expects the semiconductor industry to offset global economic pressures.
The IMF has maintained its projection of 1.1% GDP growth for Russia in 2026 and 2027, unchanged from its April estimates. The report also noted Russia's GDP grew 4.9% in 2024 and is expected to grow 1% in 2025.
The IMF projects India's growth at 6.4% for the current year, citing strong private consumption and services. It raised the next fiscal year's GDP growth forecast to 6.7%. Globally, the IMF noted resilience despite the Middle East conflict but warned of risks.
The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3% for this year and 3.4% for next, a slight downgrade from April. The report cites the Middle East war's impact offset by AI-driven tech demand, with risks still tilted to the downside.
The IMF has raised its UK growth forecast to 1% for this year, making it the third fastest-growing G7 economy in 2026. This upgrade comes amid hopes the economic impact of the Iran conflict may be less severe than feared, with oil prices stabilizing and inflation easing.
The IMF has raised South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, citing strong global demand for memory chips and AI adoption, which offsets the impact of the Middle East war. This projection is the highest among advanced economies in the IMF's report.
Economists believe Australia will avoid recession despite a projected contraction in GDP per capita, citing falling oil prices and a tax cut. While inflation and interest rates remain concerns, future growth is anticipated, boosted by datacenters and AI.
Major global investment banks have raised their average growth forecast for South Korea's economy in 2026 to 3%, the first time it has reached this level. This upward revision is driven by robust semiconductor exports, spurred by the global artificial intelligence boom. South Korea's exports hit a record $102.25 billion in June, with semiconductors accounting for $44.82 billion.
Goldman Sachs increases India's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.5%, citing lower oil prices, easing supply disruptions, and resilient domestic demand post-US-Iran peace deal, also raising FY27 forecast to 6.5%.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has revised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth, lowering it to 1% for 2026 from a previous 1.4%. Projections indicate a 1.5% growth in 2027, accelerating to 1.8% in 2028. The bank also anticipates the Russian Central Bank's key rate to reach 12% by end-2026.
Queensland's Treasurer David Janetzki aims to prevent a credit rating downgrade despite a budget deficit and projected borrowings exceeding $200bn in three years. The budget forecasts a surplus in 2029-30, after years of deficits, boosted by higher coal royalties.
The World Bank lowered its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.6%, citing high oil prices due to the Iran-Israel conflict. Growth could slow to 2.1% if energy prices remain high, or plummet to 1.3% if financial markets are strained. The bank plans to provide $50-60 billion in aid to developing countries.
The World Bank has warned that the Middle East conflict could slow global economic growth to 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9%, due to surging energy prices and inflation. Developing countries are particularly at risk, with the bank pledging up to $100bn in support.
The World Bank has reduced its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, citing Middle East conflict, rising energy prices, and market uncertainty. India remains the fastest-growing major economy, projected at 6.6% for FY26-27.
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.5% this year, citing the Middle East war, rising inflation, and borrowing costs. The report highlights potential disruptions to oil flows, increased fertilizer prices, and a widening gap between developed and developing nations.
OPEC has again reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 0.2 million barrels per day to 0.97 million bpd. The organization also revised down its 2025 growth forecast by 0.2 million bpd to 1.2 million bpd, while increasing its demand forecast for 2027.
Germany's economic recovery is weaker than anticipated, with experts at DIW halving their growth forecast to 0.5% for the year. Energy prices and structural issues are blamed, while public spending props up growth.
RBI holds repo rate at 5.25%, lowers FY27 growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.9%, and raises inflation projection to 5.1% from 4.6% due to West Asia conflict's impact on oil prices and supply chains.
Italy's economy is projected to grow by 0.4% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, with inflation expected around 3% in 2026. High debt and EU fiscal rules limit government spending, favoring entities with investment capacity.
Germany's Council of Economic Experts forecasts a mere 0.5% GDP growth in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with inflation rising to 3%, prompting concerns over the country's economic competitiveness and structural issues like an aging population.
Taiwan's economic growth forecast for 2026 is projected at 7.56% by CIER and 7.22% by TIER. Experts cite the potential end of the Middle East conflict and continued AI investment as drivers for upward revision, while acknowledging global economic uncertainties.
India's transportation fuel demand growth is projected to slow significantly in the latter half of 2026 due to rising fuel prices, government conservation efforts, and a weakening rupee, according to a Kpler report. The forecast for 2026 demand growth was revised down by 77,000 barrels per day.
The Bank of Korea is expected to raise its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.5-2.6% from 2.0%, driven by strong semiconductor exports. Inflation forecasts are also rising due to Middle East tensions.
