Regional developments: Tunisian rulings, Moroccan-Spanish tension, and international efforts to address the Renaissance Dam crisis

On Friday, the European Union expressed its concern after the Tunisian Court of Cassation upheld the aggravated sentences issued against about 40 people, including prominent opponents, in the case of “conspiring against state security.”

Among those imprisoned in the case are veteran opposition figure Ahmed Najib Al-Shabbi, lawyer Al-Ayachi Al-Hammami, former prominent leader of the Ennahda movement Abdelhamid Al-Jalasi, former centrist minister Ghazi Al-Chaouachi, and activist Shaima Issa.

European Commission foreign affairs spokesman Christian Wiegand said in statements reported by Agence France-Presse: “The European Union followed with concern the rulings upheld by the Tunisian Court of Cassation on September 3 in what is known as the case of conspiracy against state security, which resulted in long prison sentences against dozens of political figures, activists, human rights defenders and journalists,” adding that “some questions remain regarding full compliance with fair trial guarantees.”

The spokesman continued, explaining: “The European Union denounces the use of communications with diplomats accredited in Tunisia, including Europeans, as a basis for bringing an accusation or evidence convicting the accused.”

“We call on the Tunisian authorities to re-create the necessary conditions so that pluralism and independent voices contribute to the country’s development,” Wiegand concluded. On Thursday, the Court of Cassation, which is called the Court of Cassation in Tunisia, rejected the appeals submitted in this case, making the harsh sentences of up to 45 years in prison final. Setting a date for the session sparked sharp criticism. A number of lawyers denounced the announcement a few days before it was held, which prevented them from adequately preparing their defense in a case that involved high political stakes.

Before the session, Amnesty International urged the Tunisian authorities to overturn the convictions, which it considered “unjust,” and to release those imprisoned in this case. Since President Kais Saied seized power on July 25, 2021, the opposition and civil society have denounced the decline of rights and freedoms in Tunisia.

On Friday, the Moroccan media strongly criticized a Spanish police report that indicated “complete complacency” by Moroccan forces in the face of the influx of tens of thousands of migrants into the Spanish-occupied enclave of Ceuta in northern Morocco in late July.

More than 70,000 migrants crossed from Morocco to Ceuta on July 30 and 31, in an unprecedented wave that killed dozens, most of them drowned, while trying to swim around a sea barrier.

A Spanish police report - seen by Agence France-Presse on Wednesday - indicated “complete laxity” in the Moroccan police response, which facilitated the flow of migrants, with some officers directing them towards the water.

The report, which was based on satellite images, publicly available videos and migrants' testimonies, said that police numbers around the border crossing were "much lower than usual" and that officers "did not make any serious attempt" to control the crowds.

The leftist government in Spain has always avoided holding Morocco responsible, while it has spent years trying to improve its historically complex relations with it, especially regarding the status of Ceuta and Melilla.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez confirmed on Thursday that there was no “conclusive evidence” that Morocco planned or orchestrated the influx of migrants. There has been no official comment from Morocco on this report yet, but several Moroccan media outlets have criticized its content. The Hespress website considered that the text “reveals a fragile narrative structure, lacking material evidence, and full of blatant contradictions that refute the hypotheses of the report itself.” The website saw in it “a desperate attempt to transform Morocco from a reliable strategic partner in border management into a scapegoat for settling purely political and judicial scores in Madrid.” As for Lodisk, for his part, he denounced “a document that was completed in a hurry,” pointing out several incorrect facts, such as mentioning the date of June 30 instead of July 30. He also pointed out that the terms “state” and “Moroccan government” do not appear in the report when describing responsibilities.

The TelQuel weekly adopted the same position, noting that, contrary to what was widely circulated in the media, the report does not attribute responsibility for “planning and implementation” to Morocco, nor does it identify any Moroccan official by name.

For its part, the economic news website “Media 24” emphasized “the necessity of taking a Moroccan view” on this report, which was widely followed in Spain, especially by media outlets whose positions are “hostile to Morocco,” according to the website, which denounced the use of the term “complacency” on the grounds that the report is based on “satellite images that capture a real-time moment and nothing else.”

In early August, a high-ranking Moroccan official confirmed to Agence France-Presse, requesting that his name not be revealed, that there had been no negligence in Moroccan security measures.

Italian readiness to intervene with its friend Ethiopia; To discuss its crisis with Egypt regarding the “Renaissance Dam,” in addition to Chinese support for Egypt’s right to the Nile River, at a time when Cairo affirmed “relying on friends to support water security,” what experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat considered a step that strengthens the bet on the possibility of maximizing pressure on Addis Ababa and pushing for fair solutions that do justice to Egyptian rights.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty, during a joint press conference with his Italian counterpart Antonio Taiani, at the conclusion of their talks in Cairo on Thursday, stressed “the importance of full compliance with the rules of international law, most notably the principle of not causing harm, the principle of rejecting any unilateral measures, and relying on friends to support Egyptian water security,” according to the German News Agency.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani announced Rome's readiness to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia to reach a solution to the water crisis between the two countries, stressing his country's readiness "to benefit from its good relations with Ethiopia to help reach a solution to the crisis, and to facilitate this dialogue in the coming weeks, if Egypt and Ethiopia wish to do so," according to Egyptian media.

This Italian effort is in addition to a Chinese affirmation of Egypt’s right to its water security, and its support for adherence to international law by the Nile Basin countries, at the conclusion of President Xi Jinping’s visit to Cairo last Tuesday.

This was preceded by American efforts since last January, when US President Donald Trump sent an official letter to President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, presenting Washington’s readiness to resume the “Renaissance Dam” negotiations and reach a final and just solution to the issue.

The Nile is no longer a bilateral issue

Member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and former Assistant Foreign Minister, Mohamed Hegazy, believes that recent developments “reflect an important fact, which is that the Nile crisis is no longer a bilateral issue that can be left hostage to stagnation or fait accompli management, but rather has become an issue of regional stability that requires responsible action from friendly powers and international partners.”

Hegazy affirmed in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat: “If friends have a required role at this stage, it is not to take sides with one party against another, but rather to help everyone realize the simple fact that a just agreement is a victory for all, and that true stability cannot be built on a fait accompli policy,” stressing that “the most important bet today is for Egypt’s strategic relations with its friends and allies to turn into a real driving force towards resuming serious negotiations, based on what has been accomplished previously, not starting from scratch, and targeting Reaching a comprehensive and binding agreement that achieves the interests of the three countries (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia).”

For his part, the Vice President of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, Ambassador Salah Halima, believes that this movement proposed by Rome, Beijing, and before that Washington, “clearly indicates a trend towards supporting the Egyptian position, and the necessity of reaching a comprehensive settlement of the crisis.”

Regarding the expected role of the “Friends of Egypt,” Halima pointed out that “it is possible to launch mediation through individual or collective actions or joint coordination.” With the aim of communicating with all parties,” he pointed out, “talking about the possibility of providing incentives or investments to Ethiopia by China, Italy, or others to change its position is a matter that is up to the vision of each party, but Egypt wants to adhere to the laws, and give priority to the language of cooperation instead of confrontation.”

Egyptian threat of escalation

Last August, Egypt affirmed more than once that the water issue is “national security and a red line,” according to a statement by an official source reported by the Egyptian News Agency. The Egyptian Foreign Minister also hinted at using the “right of legitimate defense” regarding developments in the Nile River file and the “Renaissance Dam” crisis.

After about less than a decade, negotiations between Cairo and Addis Ababa were frozen for 3 years, before resuming in 2023, then frozen again in 2024, amid Ethiopia, which is considered an upstream country, refusing to conclude an agreement, and asserting that it does not harm Egypt or Sudan, the two downstream countries.

Hegazy believes that “the escalating Egyptian position and international support for concluding an agreement between Egypt and Ethiopia confirm that Cairo will not accept Addis Ababa’s management of the Nile unilaterally... Cairo wants to reach a fair equation that guarantees development without harming others, and transforms the Nile from a potential source of tension into an area of ​​joint cooperation.”

He explained that “the true role of friends should not be limited to intervening when the crisis approaches the brink of danger, but rather working from now on to prevent reaching that brink, by supporting a just solution that guarantees Ethiopia’s right to development, and at the same time protects the water rights and existential security of Egypt and Sudan.”

Halima points out, “There are challenges and difficulties, and the matter requires great efforts given the divergent positions of the two parties, especially in light of Ethiopia’s politicization of the water issue.”