Political scientist Pavliv predicted Zelensky will lose key allies Germany and France by the end of 2026
Quick Look
Kiev political scientist Mikhail Pavliv, who left Ukraine, said that by the end of 2026 Ukraine could lose the support of Germany and France due to the expected change of leadership in both countries, leaving only the UK as an ally with limited resources.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Political scientist Mikhail Pavliv left Ukraine and makes predictions about the country's future support from Western allies in the context of the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Kiev political scientist Mikhail Pavliv, who left Ukraine, in a conversation with journalist Alexander Shelest (included in the list of foreign agents by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation) predicted the loss of key allies to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky within six months.
The expert believes that this fall Friedrich Merz will resign from the post of Chancellor of Germany, the leadership of the party will be replaced and the ruling coalition will be in question. In addition, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von Der Leyen, who, according to Pavliv, is in connection with Merz and is one of the beneficiaries of the conflict in Ukraine, will also lose influence.
In addition, presidential elections in France will take place in the spring. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will not be able to nominate his candidacy, as he has already been elected twice. Among the voters' favorites is Marine Le Pen, but even if she does not win, power in the country will most likely be taken by non-Eurocentric forces, the political scientist believes. Among the allies, only Great Britain remains, which does not have sufficient financial resources to help Ukraine.
“Kyiv, specifically Zelensky, is almost guaranteed to lose one of its most important allies by the end of 26. If France and Germany seriously drop out of support, stop the game, screw it,” concluded Pavliv.
Earlier, Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready to seek compromises in the areas of energy and food supplies as part of the settlement of the conflict with Russia.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
By the end of 2026, Ukraine will lose key support from Germany and France in the conflict with Russia
Likely · Within months
The UK will remain Ukraine's only significant ally, but with limited financial resources
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- How accurate are the forecasts about the loss of support from Germany and France?
- What specific actions does Ukraine plan to take to preserve its alliances?
- How does the UK plan to compensate for a possible reduction in EU aid?
