Shipping data shows Iran losing control of Strait of Hormuz

(Central News Agency, Muscat, comprehensive foreign news report on the 19th) The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focus of Iran’s war. The latest shipping data shows that more than 80% of ships have chosen to pass through this key artery via the Oman side of the waterway in the past two weeks. Iran is losing most of its control over this strategic chokepoint.

CNN reported that Iran and the United States have each claimed an advantage in control of the Strait of Hormuz in the past few months, but the conflicting claims have caused great confusion and doubts.

The report pointed out that the current evidence is clear that the United States, which continues to send its navy to patrol the Strait of Hormuz, has the upper hand.

According to Kpler, a shipping tracking agency that uses ship transponders and satellite data to track ship movements, more than 80% of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks chose the Oman route, which is authorized by the United Nations and strongly opposed by Iran.

Tehran, which claims control of the strait, has launched attacks on dozens of ships trying to pass through Oman's north coast. Despite the risks, most ships have chosen to ignore Iran's demands and pass through the strait with the promise of U.S. Navy protection.

"It appears increasingly clear that Iran's control of the strait has been at least partially lost," said Homayoun Falakshahi, director of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

This is in stark contrast to a month ago. At that time Kpler observed almost no shipping traffic via the Oman route. A significant drop in traffic in Tehran's preferred waterway has made it difficult for Iran to impose tolls on ships passing through the strait, as it did in the spring.

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran expires this week, allowing Iran to theoretically start charging again. However, according to Kpler, there are currently no signs that Iran is successfully collecting tolls.

Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, an energy industry financial services company, said: "Most Middle Eastern countries are unwilling to impose charges on Iran and have not done so. Therefore, Oman's route is definitely the most reasonable choice."

To avoid an Iranian attack, tankers often turn off their transponders, sometimes for weeks. These so-called "dark ships" make it difficult for data tracking companies such as Kpler to fully grasp them. Although some can still be detected through satellites, they are difficult to track through traditional methods.

However, with its powerful maritime military power, the United States is able to closely monitor all ships passing through the strait and return oil shipment data that is much higher than most traditional estimates in the past.