A memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June expired on Monday, with little sign that either side is willing to extend the agreement that Washington and Tehran have accused each other of violating almost since it was signed.
“We have not yet made a decision to resume negotiations with the United States,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a Telegram post on Saturday.
On Monday, the BBC asked Donald Trump during a call with reporters in the Oval Office of the White House whether he intended to seek an extension of the Memorandum. The US President answered briefly: “No.”
Trump continues to insist that a solution to the impasse is in sight. On Monday, he told Fox News that the United States is holding behind-the-scenes talks with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
An IRGC spokesman quickly denied the claim. Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi told Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency that no talks had taken place between Guardian Corps officials and the Americans, dismissing Trump's assertion as the result of "defeat in war and desperation."
As the ceasefire officially expires, the US president and his team have vowed to impose crippling sanctions on Iran this week, although the details of those plans are not yet known. And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States could maintain a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, acknowledging that there was no end in sight to the war.
The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, signed on June 17 by Donald Trump and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, provided for the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as an agreement to try to reach a final agreement on almost all other issues.
The agreement provided for: "An immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon"; Ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports within 30 days and then withdrawing all US forces from Iranian borders within 30 days of signing the final peace treaty; Opening the Strait of Hormuz to duty-free passage for ships for 60 days, after which Iran, as a US administration official said, “in cooperation not only with Oman, but also with other Gulf states, will develop a broader, longer-term agreement on the Strait of Hormuz”; The creation by the United States and its partners of a fund for the “reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran” in the amount of at least $300 billion; “Lifting all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran”; the cancellation schedule was to be agreed upon later; No Nuclear Weapons: Tehran will never develop or acquire nuclear weapons and will cooperate in eliminating Iranian enriched uranium.
Although the American and Iranian versions of the agreement differed slightly, much of the debate after it was signed concerned more fundamental issues, such as whether it was a truce or a longer-term agreement and what each side was supposed to do.
Dispute soon arose over whether the agreement remained in full force, and on June 27, Trump called Iranian strikes in the region a “stupid violation” of the agreement. Iran said the US strikes "violate Article 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding."
On July 7, Trump said the agreement was "over" and the US continued to launch strikes on Iran, including what Tehran described as civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials said the US had "violated and suspended" all of its obligations and Tehran had "similarly suspended all of its obligations."
Since then, the US has not fully lifted sanctions on Iran, and Trump has not supported the idea of paying Iran recovery funds, proposing instead that Tehran pay compensation to the families of protesters it has killed "over the last 50 years" as well as "all the people they have killed and severely wounded with their roadside bombs and in numerous conflicts."
The restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has also not happened: Washington and Tehran continue to insist that they control the strait. Last week, the Pentagon said it opened fire on a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the strait because it "violated the US blockade against Iran."
Iran, in turn, began negotiations with Oman about a possible new route through the Strait of Hormuz and put forward a number of conditions to the United States that were not in the memorandum. Trump was so angry that on Monday he promised to "bomb Oman to hell" if he prevented further negotiations between Washington and Tehran, although analysts say those threats more likely reflect his frustration with the situation in which he has forced himself.
The war has contributed to eroding voter confidence in Trump and could have larger consequences in the midterm elections, Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute of Public Opinion, told the Washington Post.
“For many voters, the war in Iran is about the economy. When the strait was closed, gasoline prices went up, Miringoff said. “It feels like there is no rationale for why we entered this war, no clear idea of how it is playing out, and no indication of how we will get out of it, which is the exact opposite of what good politics is all about.”
Trump doesn't have much leverage left if he wants to increase pressure on Tehran, Barbara Slavin, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, told Al Jazeera.
The US stockpile of interceptor missiles is dwindling, strategic oil reserves are running low, and key military equipment, including aircraft carriers, is already at sea months longer than planned, meaning the US has few military options left. As for economic pressure, Tehran has demonstrated that it can itself cause significant economic damage by stopping shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Slavin noted.
Trump said last week that the US has “total control” of the strait and will not end the blockade. “I THINK WE'LL KEEP IT! - Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social in his characteristic manner. “Everyone calls our naval blockade a ‘STEEL WALL,’ and Iran can’t do anything about it.”
Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who was part of the U.S. negotiating team that secured the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, said the war has moved from a military operation to an economic pressure campaign that the U.S. hopes will force Iran to capitulate. However, according to him, any economic difficulties will be felt first by the Iranian people, and not by the regime, which is taking an increasingly hardline position.
“The U.S. doesn’t have good options,” Eyre, now a fellow at the Middle East Institute, told the Washington Post. “This war destroyed a complex system. And this system will not return to the way it was before February 28.”
In an interview with Fox News, Trump sought to demonstrate patience, saying he was “in no rush” to reach a deal, while emphasizing that his main goal remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Nate Swanson of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council think tank told the New York Times that he believes the president has several options to try to resolve the conflict. He noted that the United States could continue what Trump called “quiet” economic pressure that has so far failed to produce results; step up the military campaign against Iran, even as the United States dwindles its ammunition stockpile; or return to negotiations with the goal of concluding an agreement similar to the one that both parties have already abandoned. Another option is that Trump could try to distance himself from what is happening and ask his Gulf allies to intervene more actively in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
“I wonder if at some point, whether by choice or incompetence, we will simply put on blinders and leave this problem to the Gulf countries,” Swanson said.
According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the contents of the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad meant “the end of the war, not a ceasefire.” He added that because the US violated the Memorandum and continued to attack, “there was no 60-day truce to be extended.”
Recent personnel changes in Iran's national security apparatus indicate a tougher stance in future negotiations and less willingness to make concessions, especially on the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera notes. For example, in early August, former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaei was appointed as the new head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security body. Analysts say the move is intended to ensure better coordination between military and civilian operations.
