These convoys, most of which carry Iraqi registration plates, depart from refineries in southern Iraq, traveling long distances through damaged roads and congestions extending for tens of kilometers, all the way to the port of Baniyas on the Syrian coast, where the oil is emptied into storage tanks to be later reloaded onto tankers heading toward European and African markets.
According to international press reports, this movement began as an emergency solution last April, after Iraqi oil export companies were forced to search for alternative ports due to the near cessation of movement in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
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But this quick solution quickly turned into an ambitious project to create a land energy corridor linking the southern oil fields in Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea via Syrian territory.
This trend comes at a time when Iraq, as the second largest oil producer in OPEC, relies almost entirely on the southern export ports near Basra, which pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where about 3.4 million barrels per day were passing out of the 3.6 million barrels exported before the outbreak of the crisis.
Estimates indicate that the Iraqi government oil marketing company, SOMO, has awarded contracts to transport hundreds of thousands of tons of heavy fuel per month through Syria, with Baghdad looking forward to expanding this arrangement to include crude oil, with the aim of exporting tens of thousands of barrels per day as a first stage.
Officials in Baghdad confirm that the goal is not merely to overcome the current crisis, but to secure a permanent strategic alternative that protects Iraqi exports from any future closures of the Strait, which will keep this path effective even after navigation in Hormuz returns to its full normality.
However, relying on trucks as a permanent solution faces many logistical and economic obstacles, due to slow movement, high costs, and the deteriorating condition of roads in Syria, in addition to the recurrence of accidents. Therefore, attention turned towards more sustainable solutions, as Iraq and Syria signed memorandums of understanding with an international consortium that includes the American energy giant “Chevron”, the “TA Capital” investment company, and the Qatari “UCC” company.
This partnership aims to conduct technical and economic studies in preparation for the construction of a new pipeline, which is seen as a modern resurrection of the historic “Kirkuk-Baniyas” line, which has stopped operating since 2003, but with much greater specifications and ambitions.
It is expected that the proposed line will extend to connect the oil fields in southern Iraq, such as the “West Qurna 2” and “Nasiriyah” fields, with the Mediterranean Sea, with a capacity that may reach two million barrels per day, compared to only 300 thousand barrels per day that was transported by the old line.
However, the project is surrounded by serious challenges, most notably the high cost estimated at between 5 and 15 billion dollars, and an implementation period that may extend to four years. Experts also warn that the economic feasibility of the project may be in doubt, as the costs of crossing the Strait of Hormuz may be less expensive than the risks and costs of constructing and operating a new land pipeline.
The security challenges are no less serious than the economic obstacles. The area through which the proposed line will pass in western Iraq and eastern Syria is witnessing the presence of Iranian-backed militias and ISIS cells, which have previously destroyed parts of the oil infrastructure in the region.
Analysts confirm that any attack on a single pumping station may completely disrupt the flow of oil, which will raise insurance and security costs dramatically, and transform the risks from a maritime threat in the Strait of Hormuz to a land threat extending over hundreds of kilometers.
In the end, energy experts conclude that no single pipeline is able to fully compensate for the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather the optimal strategic solution lies in building an integrated network of alternative export routes. This network includes the Mediterranean route, and potential routes towards the Red Sea, or towards the Gulf of Oman, where each route avoids a specific threat, but remains vulnerable to other risks, which makes geographical diversification of oil exports the only guarantee for the stability of supplies in light of the region’s fluctuations.
