(Central News Agency, Washington, 29th, Comprehensive Foreign News Report) As Russia struggles to advance in the Ukrainian battlefield and encounters increasingly serious attacks by Ukrainian drones and missiles, Moscow is increasing pressure on the Kiev authorities’ European allies and launching a series of so-called "grey zone" activities in an attempt to spread fear.
The Wall Street Journal reported that in recent months, Europe has been hit by a series of drone intrusions, acts of sabotage, cyber attacks and other hostile actions, and authorities in various countries believe that they are inseparable from Russia.
Leaders of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) said the actions showed a worrying increase in Russia's willingness to take risks in Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to block European aid to Ukraine and divide allies.
Western officials pointed out that Russia may further escalate the confrontation and use the captured Ukrainian drones to "frame the blame" on Ukraine for future attacks on NATO countries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the relevant claims, saying they were an excuse for Europe to take military measures against Russia.
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow on the 25th of this month. People familiar with the itinerary revealed that part of the purpose was to convey the message of the United States' firm support for NATO allies to the Putin government. This represents the hidden concern of escalating the situation and has attracted the attention of Washington.
Remigijus Bridikis, head of Lithuania's State Security Service (VSD), said: "Russia is seeking to weaken NATO countries' support for Ukraine and is also pursuing a secondary effect, which is to spread fear."
Incidents in recent weeks include the discovery of three explosive drones in or near a German airport, including one hidden under a Ukrainian cargo plane. Russian drones have also broken into NATO airspace on several occasions, and one was recently shot down over Romania.
Dutch intelligence agencies have warned that groups backed by the Russian government are systematically conducting digital espionage operations to spy on aid to Ukraine by hacking into Internet-connected surveillance cameras.
According to statistics from Ukraine's Sahaidachnyi Security Center, which monitors Russian activities in Europe's gray zone, since 2024, there have been at most about 10 Russian-backed incidents per month, but since April this year, the monthly number has increased to about 15. Analysts at Sahaydachny said trends are often not easy to discern because many incidents suspected of being linked to Russia are not included in its data.
As the Russo-Ukrainian war enters a new phase and the losses become more severe, the frequency of such low-intensity intrusions also increases. Ukraine has been increasingly successful in striking targets deep inside Russia, decimating its oil and gas industries and other industries that underpin Moscow's war machine. The Kremlin is now hitting back at Ukraine in the same way.
European authorities have accused Russia of using local agents through Telegram and other social media platforms to engage in sabotage, espionage and vandalism in an attempt to inflame social divisions. Estonia is currently investigating whether an arson attack on local defense company Milrem Robotics this month was linked to Russia-related sabotage.
Recently, explosions and fires have occurred one after another at arms facilities in Italy, Bulgaria and Finland. Although the authorities have not yet stated that they have found evidence of Russian involvement, the outside world has already raised suspicions.
Russia's actions may raise concerns among Europeans that they face threats to their personal safety due to governments' policies in Ukraine. Another possible concern is that supplying weapons to Ukraine would deplete Europe's arsenal of weapons that might later be needed against Russia.
A new U.S. intelligence assessment points out that in the next few years, Russia may attempt to test NATO's resolve with limited attacks on NATO member states, which may include cyber attacks to small-scale landing intrusions.
Even if this is not the case, the Kremlin can still benefit from disrupting the political situation in NATO countries including Germany, France, Finland, Estonia and Poland before they hold local or national elections. Poland in particular is more vulnerable to disruption due to rising tensions with Ukrainian refugees.
