When Tariq Rahman became the Prime Minister of Bangladesh in February this year, India invited him to visit New Delhi.
Tariq Rahman did not give priority to this invitation and he chose Malaysia for his first foreign visit as PM.
After Malaysia, Tariq Rahman went to China. Meanwhile, India has again invited Tariq Rehman to come as a guest to the BRICS Summit to be held in New Delhi. The Prime Minister of Bangladesh has not yet agreed to this visit.
Bangladesh's Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that talks have been going on between the two countries for several weeks regarding the possible visit of Prime Minister Tariq Rahman. The ministry also said that the press conference of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at the Foreign Correspondents Club in Delhi on August 5 has deteriorated the atmosphere in the relations between the two countries.
Bangladesh Foreign Ministry spokesperson A.K.M. Shahidul Karim had said that it is necessary to create a favorable environment for Tariq Rehman's visit.
In such a situation, the question arises that why is India trying so hard to call the Prime Minister of Bangladesh?
Journalist Saurabh Kumar Shahi, who keeps a keen eye on the geopolitics of West Asia and South Asia, says that India has no other option.
Saurabh Kumar Shahi says, "Now it cannot be that if a government has come with which you do not agree, then you will not engage with them. It's the same thing, friends can change but neighbors cannot. Obviously, there is an attempt to engage. After several engagements, if you make slight changes in your policy, then there is improvement. For example, see the survey by Pew Research, in which India's approval rating in various countries has been measured. The country where India's approval rating has increased the most is Sri Lanka.
''When the government came to Sri Lanka, it was also said that this is an anti-India government and how will this happen to them? But eventually they got engaged. They came to India, met in India, people from India went there, met there. Its effect will be seen on the ground.
Similarly, according to Pew Research, the negative attitude of common people towards India has increased in Bangladesh. In the latest survey of Pew Research Center, 42% of Bangladeshis gave a positive opinion about India while 51% expressed a negative opinion. The survey was conducted between February and May this year.
According to Pew Research's 2024 survey, 57 percent people in Bangladesh had a positive opinion towards India, but in 2026 it declined by 15 percent and now only 42 percent have a positive opinion.
According to the report, a large number of people in Bangladesh and Pakistan also consider India as the biggest threat to their country.
Saurabh Kumar Shahi says that the Pew Research survey shows what kind of sentiment the common people of Bangladesh have about India and no Prime Minister can ignore this sentiment.
Shahi says, “How can Tariq Rehman ignore this sentiment when Jamaat-e-Islami is in the opposition? They know that India is an important country for Bangladesh because 94 percent of the border is with India. But if they want to remain in power, they will have to take care of public sentiments also. I think India would also understand their compulsion.
Shahi says, “I think the outreach is being done from India's side. They know that Bangladesh has rejected an invitation. But only Modi government can do this work. No one else can. If anyone else tries to go so out-of-the-way, he will be branded a traitor.
Mohammad Humayun Kabir, who was Bangladesh's ambassador to America, believes that Bangladesh has now changed.
Humayun Kabir wrote in an article in Bangladesh's leading English newspaper The Daily Star on August 16, "The public revolt of July 2024 has changed the aspirations of the people. Now Bangladeshis are more independent-minded, ambitious and more conscious of their aspirations. The elections that followed were widely considered fair and largely participatory, in which the BNP came to power with an overwhelming mandate.
Humayun Kabir writes, "These two domestic developments have had cross-border ramifications and have affected how Bangladesh views India, China, the US and other key partners." India naturally wants to understand what the thinking and priorities of the new government are. It would be best for India to discuss these questions with the Prime Minister, because ultimately he is the person who takes decisions. India will also have to understand that Bangladesh will not become anyone's subordinate or anyone's henchman.
Even when Tariq Rehman's mother Begum Khaleda Zia was the Prime Minister, there was tension in the relationship. Saurabh Kumar Shahi says that the reason for this was that even then we had kept all our eggs in one basket, i.e. in the basket of Sheikh Hasina.
Shahi says, “I have never seen such an open insistence on calling a Prime Minister of Bangladesh before. I think there is an attempt to manage the relationship and reduce the crisis. There are not too many expectations and there should not be, because you have given such uncritical support to one person.
For whom will it be a shock if Tariq Rehman does not attend the BRICS summit to be held on 12-13 September next month? Saurabh Kumar Shahi says, "Bangladesh is not a member of BRICS. Are being invited as guests. The optics will be bad, but not too bad, as expectations aren't already very high. It is not that you had a good relationship with someone and he did not come. If the person with whom you are trying to establish a relationship does not come, it is not that big a deal.
''But there is one more thing. Since India has given the invitation, the pressure is now on Bangladesh and not on India. The pressure is on Tariq Rehman that your neighboring country has called, and if you do not come then it will not only be an insult to India; BRICS will also be insulted because you have been invited to a multilateral forum.
''This is not an invitation for an official bilateral visit. If you want to be a part of BRICS in the future, you would not want to be seen as uncooperative in this effort. Therefore, this is a more difficult situation for Tariq Rehman than for Modi. Modi did whatever he had to do, he had already given the invitation.
Dhananjay Tripathi, Associate Professor of International Affairs at South Asian University, says that Tariq Rehman is under pressure from both sides.
Dr. Tripathi says, “There will be public pressure not to go to India. But diplomacy has its own principles. You have been invited to sit and watch the proceedings of the multilateral forum of which you wish to become a member in the future. What will you do now? Therefore, this is a more difficult situation for Tariq Rehman than for Modi.
Dr Tripathi says, “Course correction is taking place. Also understand that now a lot of pressure is being put on Hasina to get out of here. It would seem that India is handing him over to another party, that would be very bad optics. But if they themselves find themselves in such a situation, then it is a different matter.
It is difficult for Tariq Rehman because his entire mandate has been against Sheikh Hasina's party.
She has contested the elections against Sheikh Hasina's party and there is also a case of Sheikh Hasina in the Supreme Court. In such a situation, if Tariq Rehman comes here, the situation may become more complicated for him in Dhaka.
Dr. Tripathi says, "Tariq Rehman's problem is that as soon as he comes to New Delhi, his political stature will be affected in Bangladesh. That is why they are trying to avoid it. A big pressure will be removed when Sheikh Hasina goes back from India, whether to Bangladesh or any other country.
If Tariq Rahman does not come to the BRICS summit, will it be an uncomfortable situation for Bangladesh or a blow to India? In response, Dr. Tripathi says, "I think it would be a bit much to call it a setback, but there will definitely be a shortcoming."
“An important space will remain vacant. He should come, but I don't think he will come to India anytime soon, unless there is something very big at the diplomatic level. Maybe they will send it to someone else. Send one of your representatives or the Foreign Minister.
Humayun Kabir says, "India may have concerns about Bangladesh's relations with Pakistan, but we can assure India that this is a normal relationship between the two countries. Bangladesh will not allow its land to be used to harm any third country.
“Our relations with China should also not be a cause of unnecessary concern for India. China has been involved in Bangladesh's infrastructure development for decades because Bangladesh needs that assistance and China can provide it. Türkiye is also becoming important for Bangladesh, as Bangladesh is trying to create employment opportunities and diversify its economic partners.
