Andy Burnham's Path to Downing Street: A Labour Leadership Battle Looms

Andy Burnham spent the last month running a hopey-changey campaign from a small town social club to become an MP. His allies have been plotting frenetically behind the scenes to launch the campaign for No. 10 that now begins in Westminster.

The former veteran of the Westminster machine — who left for the North in the 2010s — will return to work in London by Monday as the MP for the constituency of Makerfield, in northwest England. The sitting mayor of Greater Manchester won 55 percent of the vote in the parliamentary seat to 35 percent for Nigel Farage’s right-wing party Reform UK. That makes him eligible to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer — putting the battle for Britain’s leadership in the hands of just a few hundred thousand Labour and trade union members.

The pivot will mark a shift for Burnham, who kept his campaign message relentlessly positive, rationing interviews and avoiding most tricky questions, like: When will he challenge? Who’ll run his team? And what exactly is his plan for Britain? He didn’t say. Many of his allies can’t even agree.

Starmer, who has pledged to fight for the job he won in a landslide general election less than two years ago, and his allies will exploit those questions to the fullest. The two men are expected to speak as soon as this weekend after a month-long campaign in which the pair didn’t hold a single phone call — despite the official Labour mandate to all sitting members of parliament to help Burnham win.

Burnham, who will be sworn in on Monday, is expected to try to persuade Starmer to step aside, though allies say he won’t launch a formal leadership challenge in the first 72 hours after today’s by-election victory. In preparation for the expected contest, however, he has been devoting more time in recent weeks to work up national policy. There are 100-day plans, though they’re still embryonic. Current Cabinet ministers, nominally loyal to Starmer, have been lining up for phone calls with Burnham. And yet Starmer’s allies say his resolve to fight for his job has hardened in recent weeks; they say the PM even believes he can beat Burnham, the overwhelming favorite, in a vote of the party’s grassroots members.

Burnham isn’t alone in his ambition to topple his party chief, who has been weakened by a poor Labour performance in recent local elections as well as a cascade of embarrassments stemming from his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a longtime friend of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as the U.K. ambassador to Washington. Other rivals include Wes Streeting, a leading light from Labour’s centrist wing who resigned last month from his position as health secretary.

Allies of both Burnham and Streeting believe some Cabinet ministers could resign next week to pile pressure on Starmer to set a timetable for his exit. If Starmer resists, Burnham or Streeting are expected to launch a formal challenge. Streeting insists he has the 80 MP backers he needs under party rules, despite Starmer’s belief that he is bluffing — and despite Streeting continuing to contact ministers urging them to resign, back him or both.

“None of us know where we’re going to end up by next week,” one Cabinet minister, granted anonymity to speak frankly like other figures quoted in this piece, told POLITICO in recent days.

“I’m so tired of the rollercoaster,” added one Starmer-allied official in London. Asked about plans for Friday, another said: “I will be crying and doing my CV.”

With Reform leading national opinion polls, all three main contenders for Labour’s crown — Starmer, Burnham and Streeting — have privately or publicly ruled out a general election, which would risk Labour’s governing majority, before the next deadline in 2029. That leaves the party facing civil war instead, as it strives to answer the most urgent question facing them all: Who should lead Labour’s coming battle against Farage and Reform UK for Britain’s future?

POLITICO spoke to more than two dozen serving politicians and officials allied to Burnham, Starmer and Streeting for the inside story of how Britain’s most consequential by-election in decades unfolded. It is a story of big personalities playing for the highest stakes, amid bitter infighting — which will likely only intensify in the days and weeks to come.

First question: When to move?

For Burnham, one pressing logistical question is about timing: When should he aim to get to Downing Street?

Burnham privately wants a transition this September, two allies with knowledge of his thinking told POLITICO. That would give him more time before taking on the leadership to work up policies and a staffing plan, while still allowing him to give the leader’s speech to Labour’s party conference on Sept. 29.

It all depends on how things play out in the coming days.

If there is a full leadership contest it is likely to take around two months. The two allies quoted above confirmed that Burnham would want such a contest to begin by early July at the latest, before MPs — whose nominations comprise a brief first round — leave for their summer break on July 16. Streeting has also said a contest should move quickly.

If Starmer agrees to step aside, however, and Streeting’s 80 MP backers do not materialize, Burnham could be handed the job of leader unopposed.

Such a coronation is the preferred scenario for many in Burnham’s team. A third ally with knowledge of his thinking said: “It is in everyone’s interests to avoid a contest. They get bloody and horrible and you get dragged in policy directions you don’t want to do. They are bad enough in opposition, but in government we’re not totally sure that we would recover from it. We think the markets would have a hissy fit.”

Some key allies do not want Burnham to get the job too fast, citing as a warning the example of former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak, who took over with just a few days’ notice in 2022. They hope that, if there is no contest, Starmer agrees to a transition period lasting until September.

“They want Starmer to go out [not] in a bloodbath but with dignity,” a fifth ally of Burnham said. One of the two initial allies quoted above said similar: “This is about giving Keir a dignified way out — if he wants.”

But a September handover would also compress Burnham’s time to prep before a difficult budget in the fall. Three people with knowledge of the campaign said Josh Simons, the former MP who vacated his Makerfield seat for Burnham and is working on policy for him, has pushed Burnham to move faster.

Over to you, Cabinet

In No. 10, meanwhile, Starmer has dug in, suggesting Burnham could get a big role in his government, which the Burnham camp rejected. Burnham’s allies hope that Cabinet ministers will change the PM’s mind by resigning, telling him early next week the game is up.

Already, Starmer has lost Streeting and, just last week, his Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns. The Cabinet minister both the Burnham and Starmer sides believe is most likely to go next is Ed Miliband, the left-leaning energy secretary.

Miliband spoke regularly to Burnham in one-to-one phone calls about policy throughout the campaign. “They’re very tight,” said one Burnham backer. Another joked that when Miliband calls, they “can never get him off the fucking phone,” while yet another said: “[Ed] is old school. He absolutely loves picking up the phone for a chat.”

Some allies of Starmer believe Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could also resign. A politician from Labour’s socially-conservative right flank, she privately urged Starmer to set an exit timetable in May, after dire local election results triggered moves to oust him. She has also spoken to Burnham during the campaign, said one person with knowledge of the conversations, though her allies insist the two politicians did not speak either this week or last week.

Burnham’s team have discussed both Miliband and Mahmood as his potential chancellor, the second-biggest job in Westminster — and prominent aides to Burnham have pushed Mahmood, believing her politics would be more likely to keep the bond markets stable.

One Starmer-aligned official said of the two ministers: “They’re both obviously working with Burnham and are going to pick their moment to resign or jump ship.”

Miliband and Mahmood’s spokespeople both insisted Thursday before the Makerfield result that they were not preparing to quit. A spokesperson for Miliband said: “Ed has no plans to resign.” A spokesperson for Mahmood said: “She’s entirely focused on the job as home secretary and has no plans to give it up.”

Rebels hoping for resignations have been burned before. Streeting privately conveyed his disappointment that more ministerial colleagues did not walk out of government with him in May, according to two people with knowledge of the conversations.

The sixth ally of Burnham quoted above said: “If we get to the middle of next week, colleagues will have to decide whether they are spectators or actors in shaping history.”

Some of Starmer’s closest allies urged him last week to move first and sack disloyal ministers in the days before the by-election, according to three people familiar with the discussions. One of the three added: “Various people have suggested that there should be a reshuffle to get rid of people who would leave on Friday anyway.”

Starmer did not heed the advice — it would have been risky with his position so weak — but paranoia gripped some ministers. Even as Burnham smiled through the final two days, one senior ministerial aide privately worried that Starmer could carry out a last-ditch reshuffle as a preemptive strike against his internal critics.

Others are looking further ahead.

Allies of Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, let it be known this week that she was concerned about the need for continuity in diplomatic relations given that Britain has had nine foreign secretaries in a decade. Cooper has been talking directly to Burnham about foreign affairs, said a person with knowledge of the conversation.

Carns, an Afghanistan war veteran who has made no secret of his own leadership ambitions, was also seen at Burnham’s campaign HQ this week after quitting in protest at inadequate funding for defense. One person with knowledge of the encounter said Carns seemed “extremely pally” with Burnham.

Even Streeting made the pilgrimage to Makerfield in recent days. A person familiar with conversations said at least one Streeting ally was pushing for Burnham to keep him in the loop on any talks with Starmer, so he could help coordinate a handover of power.

While all this unfolded, Starmer was being advised by an old pal: Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s main 2024 election strategist who resigned as No. 10 chief of staff in February over his role in Mandelson’s appointment.

McSweeney — whose mere name invites a caustic response from some in Labour — sent Starmer an email directly with his thoughts about a week before polling day, a person familiar with the matter said, and he has argued the PM needs to have authority over his team. Allies of Starmer interpreted this as cutting people loose if they are not loyal enough.

This person added that McSweeney has also been speaking to Communities Secretary Steve Reed, an old friend. McSweeney, however, has insisted to allies that he and Starmer have only spoken about five times since his exit in February. He has said privately that he will not work on Starmer’s leadership campaign if it takes place.

How Andy Burnham did it

There are so many ways everything could have gone differently.

After months of behind-the-scenes griping about Starmer, Labour’s coup finally got going properly after the May local elections. The party lost seats to the left-wing Greens and right-wing Reform across Britain, and 96 MPs called on Starmer publicly to go.

Streeting could have blocked Burnham — who tried in February to run for a parliamentary seat but was stopped by Starmer loyalists — by triggering a contest early. One person who spoke to Streeting privately the week after the local elections said he had been determined to stand imminently. But when he quit the Cabinet the next day, no challenge came.

Starmer’s allies insist that Streeting did not have the 80 MP backers he needed to trigger a challenge. But a close Streeting ally told POLITICO his team became aware — two days before Streeting quit the Cabinet — that Burnham had secured a seat to run in. Streeting has since said it would’ve been “foul play” to cut Burnham out of the race by launching too early.

Which seat Burnham had was a vexed question.

Burnham’s allies had planned for Labour MP Afzal Khan to vacate the more winnable Manchester Rusholme constituency for a by-election, two allies of the Greater Manchester mayor said. But the news leaked to Westminster’s frenzied press pack, upon which Khan denied he would quit. One of the two said: “That was rock solid, and then all of a sudden it wasn’t rock solid, and we had to find another one … it was really touch and go.”

So Burnham’s camp alighted on Makerfield, the Brexit-backing constituency held by Simons that had elected a near clean sweep of Reform UK councillors the week before. Simons had been talking to Burnham for a year, but the final stages moved fast. On May 14 at 5.14 p.m. Simons said he would resign, sparking a frenzy of rumors — consistently denied — that he had been promised a role in Burnham’s No. 10.

Every micro-detail was studied for clues. The media seized on a sighting of Burnham that week at London’s Euston Station — the arrival point for travelers from Manchester. One person with knowledge of Burnham’s train ride said he was, in fact, just visiting his son.

The die, however, was cast. Burnham’s path to power would take him through the former mining communities of Makerfield, if he could walk it.

But Burnham wasn’t always the front-runner to challenge Starmer from Labour’s so-called “soft left” flank.

Miatta Fahnbulleh, the former think tanker who resigned as a local government minister over Starmer’s leadership last month, had approached all three potential contenders — Burnham, the former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, and Miliband. “The broad agreement was one of them would emerge and it was genuinely uncertain who that was going to be,” the first Burnham ally quoted in this article said.

Rayner, the straight-talking, working-class power player who resigned as Starmer’s deputy over a tax scandal last year, had been making speeches to pave her way back. But too many left-leaning MPs remained uneasy at the prospect of her return.

So two influential MPs on the soft left took control of Labour’s fate. Immediately after the May elections, Louise Haigh, a former Cabinet minister who Starmer forced to resign over an old criminal conviction, and Anneliese Midgley, a Liverpool MP close to the trade unions, started having daily 8 a.m. WhatsApp calls with Burnham and his closest aide Kevi