AST SpaceMobile Stock Drops 12% After Blue Origin Rocket Places Satellite in Wrong Orbit
BlueBird 7 satellite lost but covered by insurance; analysts say year-end deployment targets now at risk
Quick Look
- AST SpaceMobile shares fell nearly 12% in premarket trading after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket placed the company's BlueBird 7 satellite in a lower-than-planned orbit on Sunday.
- The satellite, which would have been AST's eighth in low-earth orbit, was officially deemed lost.
- Blue Origin acknowledged the error but has not issued a statement since.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
AST SpaceMobile is building a constellation of satellites to provide cellular broadband from space. The company has been rapidly deploying BlueBird satellites and depends on Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket for launches. This was the third New Glenn launch and the first to carry an AST satellite.
A failed satellite launch sent AST SpaceMobile down sharply on Monday. The stock fell nearly 12% in premarket trading after a rocket designed by Jeff Bezos' space technology company Blue Origin placed the satellite in a lower-than-planned orbit on Sunday. AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 7 satellite would have been the company's eighth launched into low-earth orbit, the company said in a Sunday press release. It was launched on Blue Origin's third New Glenn rocket. Blue Origin acknowledged in a post on X that the satellite was placed into the wrong orbit, but only added it was assessing the situation and would provide further updates. The company hasn't made a statement since the satellite was officially deemed lost. The cost of the satellite loss is expected to be covered by an insurance policy, AST said in the release. It also still expects to launch a satellite on average once every one to two months in 2026, and said BlueBird satellites 8, 9 and 10 should be ready to ship in 30 days. William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma thinks that AST's goal of 45 satellites in orbit by year-end will likely be hard to hit now. However, he didn't see Sunday's events as a total loss for the company. "AST gained experience integrating its satellite with New Glenn and working with the Blue Origin team," DiPalma wrote in a Monday note. "This experience will be integral for future missions. The silver lining is that there was only one satellite on board, whereas future New Glenn launches may have as many as eight of AST's BlueBirds." While Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy was still bullish on the stock, reiterating a buy rating after the news, he cut his price target to $115 from $137. That's still a 34% gain from Friday's close, but much less than his previously forecasted 60% jump in shares. UBS analyst Christopher Schoell said in a note the financial impact on AST will be limited, but added that AST and its share price performance are now linked with Bezos' Blue Origin. "We believe the success of Blue Origin's New Glenn vehicle … is key to meeting year-end deployment targets/ management's 2027 revenue goal, and expect the uncertainty to weigh on investor sentiment initially pending greater clarity," Schoell wrote.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Blue Origin will provide a detailed explanation of the orbital insertion failure
Likely · Within weeks
AST will maintain its 2026 launch cadence despite this setback
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific orbital parameters were targeted vs. achieved?
- Will Blue Origin provide a public explanation of what went wrong?
- How will this affect AST's 2027 revenue goals?
