Bangladesh Considers Joining Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Defense Pact Amid Regional Tensions

There has been widespread speculation about Bangladesh becoming part of a mutual defense deal struck last month by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. But the South Asian country says it has yet to receive an invitation.

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, ​signed into force in early August, ​is intended to strengthen collective ​deterrence against any act of aggression. It stipulates that an ​armed attack against any of the three countries would be regarded ​as an attack on all.

Some analysts believe the pact has already changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Asia.

"Although it is a collective defense understanding, from a strategic perspective it is primarily an initiative to maintain the regional balance of power and advance the respective interests of the participating states," ​Navine Murshid, a political science and sociology professor at North South University in Dhaka, told DW.

Bangladesh govt. in favor of Mecca pact

Any move by Bangladesh to join, however, could complicate its foreign relations, particularly with neighboring India.

The two countries share a 4,096-kilometer (2,545-mile) land border, and have strong cultural and economic ties.

India, a fierce rival of Pakistan, sheltered many Bangladeshi refugees and provided military support to Bangladesh during its independence war against Islamabad in 1971.

However, ties between New Delhi and Dhaka have become increasingly contentious since a deadly student-led uprising in 2024 toppled then Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was considered a close ally of the Indian government.

Now living in exile in India, Hasina has since been convicted in absentia for crimes against humanity during the uprising. She has denied the charges.

Bangladesh's current government, headed by the center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is in favor of the Mecca agreement.

"We view this pact positively," Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman said in response to a question in parliament last week.

But he insisted that the question of Bangladesh joining the pact, or even considering membership, had not yet arisen, as that would depend on the intentions of its current members.

"If they express an intention to include Bangladesh in the pact, we will certainly consider it positively," he said.

When asked about the remarks made by Bangladeshi officials, India said the pact had implications for its national security and that it was closely monitoring the situation.

"We continue to follow all developments that have a bearing on India's security and take all necessary steps to safeguard it," Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs, told reporters in New Delhi last week.

Competing geopolitical interests

Analysts said Dhaka needs to consider its interests carefully before making any move to join the joint defense pact.

"The scope for direct conventional interstate war or military conflict in South Asia is limited. Therefore, the primary role of such an agreement is not confined to conducting border wars," said Murshid.

"In international relations, its significance lies mainly in strengthening bargaining power and maintaining one's position against the influence of other regional countries."

Murshid added that Pakistan's interest in bringing Bangladesh closer through this agreement "is driven by geographical and political considerations."

"For India, the security of the Siliguri Corridor and its eastern frontier are important considerations," she said, referring to India's narrow land link to its northeastern states, which wraps around Bangladesh to the north. "If Pakistan's defense-related influence in Bangladesh were to increase, New Delhi could view this as a development capable of affecting the regional balance of relationships."

In such circumstances, Bangladesh would have to clearly define what it would and would not do by joining this alliance, she explained.

"In particular, a clear position would be necessary regarding Bangladesh's role if a military conflict were to arise between India and Pakistan. Taking Pakistan's side during such a conflict could create political and diplomatic pressures for Dhaka that may exceed Bangladesh's capacity to manage," she stressed.

Dhaka-based former diplomat M Humayun Kabir sees no reason for Bangladesh to join the pact. "Bangladesh has not joined any military alliance over the past 50 to 55 years. As far as I am concerned, I believe that position remains unchanged to this day," he told DW.

"They are talking about a regional security arrangement, but the region in question concerns Pakistan and the Middle East. We are not part of that region or geographical area. Bangladesh is located in the eastern part of South Asia. Therefore, there is no direct geographical rationale for Bangladesh to participate in such a military alliance," he added.

Would Bangladesh benefit from joining the pact?

Murshid stressed that Bangladesh needed to develop its own defense infrastructure and security systems sustainably.

She believes that becoming part of an international security agreement could help modernize Dhaka's defense capabilities and facilitate access to military technology.

"The text of the agreement does not directly mention trade, labor markets or economic relations. However, it is natural for economic elements to become linked with a security framework, a phenomenon known in international relations as issue linkage," she said.

However, Kabir fears joining the pact could limit Bangladesh's geopolitical options and recommended a balanced approach. "We contribute to peacekeeping missions around the world under the auspices of the United Nations, and that is important to us. Our economy is interconnected with many different countries in various ways, which is also important. Our workforce is present in countries across the world, and that, too, is an important consideration," he said.

"Therefore, before making any decision on this issue, we must take into account the many different dimensions and forms of our national interests."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru