Bitcoin Eyes "Red" May Ahead of Key US PMI Data
Quick Look
- Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end May with losses exceeding 3%, trading around $73,500.
- Key US labor market data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, is anticipated to be a major catalyst for volatility in risk assets next week.
- Analysts are watching the $73,000 level for the monthly close.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Bitcoin is trading near $73,500, looking to end May with losses of over 3%. While US stocks reached new all-time highs, Bitcoin has not benefited from easing geopolitical tensions. Upcoming US labor market data is seen as a key catalyst for volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) circled $73,500 on Sunday as bulls stared down 3% BTC price losses for May.
Key points:
Bitcoin looks set to end May "in the red" as the monthly candle close nears.
US labor-market data will form the key volatility catalyst for risk assets next week.
Bitcoin analysis says that $73,000 is the key line to watch for the monthly close.
Bitcoin eyes "red" May ahead of key US PMI data
Data from TradingView followed a quiet weekend for BTC/USD, which remained wedged under 2025 yearly lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
US stocks finished the week with new all-time highs, but Bitcoin failed to catch a tailwind from easing geopolitical tensions, notably progress on a US-Iran ceasefire.
Commenting on X, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter quoted US President Donald Trump as saying that he was “in no hurry” to get an Iran deal finalized.
Looking ahead, it added, the coming week would be “all about the labor market,” with US employment data forming a potential source of crypto and risk-asset volatility.
That would include the May print of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a yardstick for economic output that offered BTC price action some relief in recent months.
“If bitcoin still continues to follow growth & risk appetite, it needs to reprice higher from here IMO,” Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, argued on X following recent PMI data.
US manufacturing PMI data (screenshot). Source: ISM
Analyst hopes for BTC price monthly close above $73,000
With BTC/USD down by just over 3% month-to-date, per data from CoinGlass, traders were mostly unimpressed.
Related: Bitcoin analysis eyes sharp rebound after BTC collapses below M2 supply 'fair value'
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
“At the moment, the $BTC retest of $73k has been successful despite recent downside volatility,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in his latest X analysis.
“If Bitcoin manages to Weekly Close above $73k then price will be one step closer to confirming the Double Bottom breakout & be positioned to try to trend continue.”
Rekt Capital referred to a “W”-shaped bottom formation on the weekly chart that formed from late February onward.
BTC/USD one-week chart with double bottom. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With various key trend lines nearby, trader Daan Crypto Trades saw the macro range staying in play for the foreseeable future.
“$BTC Trading at its bull market support band after a failed retest the past few weeks. The Weekly 200MA & EMA are still moving up and closing in on price as well,” he told X followers.
“With all these big high timeframe weekly levels around this area, I would not be surprised to see us trade between $60K-$80K for quite a while.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
US employment data to form a potential source of crypto and risk-asset volatility.
Very likely
Bitcoin to trade between $60K-$80K for quite a while.
Possible · Medium term
Open Questions
- Will Bitcoin manage to close the monthly candle above $73,000?
- How will the US labor market data impact Bitcoin and other risk assets?
- What is the short-term outlook for Bitcoin if it closes May in the red?
