Bitcoin Records Double-Digit Gains in April Amid Geopolitical Volatility

Bitcoin ended April with double-digit gains despite an uncertain geopolitical outlook and conflicting signals on investor demand.

The leading crypto rallied just under 12% last month, marking only its second positive monthly close since September 2025. Bitcoin's gains came amid tumultuous geopolitical conditions, including the extended conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran, as well as the UAE's exit from OPEC, ending its 59-year membership.

Oil surged to $120 per barrel, with U.S. WTI crude hitting $110, as the Middle East war exacerbated geopolitical tensions.

President Trump received a high-level briefing Thursday from Centcom commander Admiral Brad Cooper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine on new military options against Iran, according to the Independent.

Plans under discussion include a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a possible operation to take control of parts of the Strait of Hormuz, and even a special forces mission to secure Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.

The prospect of diplomacy appears dim. Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, now see just a 17% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15—down from 29% on Thursday.

Despite the escalating tensions, Bitcoin held its ground. The bullish price action was driven by sustained spot ETF inflows from U.S. investors, leveraged positioning by derivatives traders, and continued accumulation by Strategy.

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, made four distinct Bitcoin purchases in April totaling approximately $4.13 billion. The company’s stock posted its first positive month since July 2025, surging 32% and breaking a nine-month losing streak.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,350, up 1.9% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

Cracks beneath the surface

Despite the price gains, not all signals are bullish. CryptoQuant's apparent demand metric remained in contraction territory throughout April, signaling an absence of organic spot demand.

“This is one of the clearest on-chain signals that price gains are speculative rather than structural,” CryptoQuant noted in its Thursday report.

Orkun Kilic, co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, offered a different lens. “ETF inflows and on-chain demand measure two different aspects of Bitcoin's evolution,” he told Decrypt. “For this rally to be sustainable, that capital needs somewhere productive to go.”

The divergence between price and demand highlights a market where ETF inflows may be masking weaker underlying conviction. A meaningful share of recent ETF demand may be tied to cash-and-carry trades—institutions buying spot Bitcoin ETF shares while shorting CME futures to capture the spread—a market-neutral strategy that does not reflect outright bullish positioning, Decrypt previously reported.

“Institutional interest is rising, but not all of it may be driven by long-term conviction,” Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, previously told Decrypt.

Kilic remains bullish on the broader trajectory. “To me it looks like a budding bull market,” he said. “If anything, the signals are more encouraging than before, with greater regulatory clarity and stronger institutional support.”