Focus Bulletin maintains stable expectations for inflation, interest and GDP

Financial market expectations for inflation, the basic interest rate, economic growth and exchange rate remained stable compared to last week, according to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (17) by the Central Bank.

For 2026, the projection for official inflation measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was maintained at 5.02%. The estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth also remained at 1.98%. Projections for the dollar at the end of the year and for the basic interest rate (Selic) remained at R$5.20 and 13.75% per year, respectively.

The scenario reflects stability in expectations for the main indicators monitored by the financial market.

The projection for inflation remains above the continuous target pursued by the Central Bank. To achieve this, the monetary authority uses the Selic rate as its main instrument, defined by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).

When the Copom increases the basic interest rate, the objective is to contain heated demand, a measure that helps to reduce inflation because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and encourage savings. On the other hand, high rates can hinder the expansion of economic activity.

2027

The GDP growth forecast indicates the market's expectations for the performance of the Brazilian economy. The indicator represents the sum of all goods and services produced in the country.

The bulletin also showed small changes in estimates for 2027. The projection for the IPCA went from 4.22% to 4.24%, while the GDP growth forecast fell from 1.52% to 1.50%. The estimate for the dollar rose from R$5.28 to R$5.29. The expectation for Selic remained at 12% per year.

Released weekly by the Central Bank, the Focus Report brings together projections from financial institutions for the main indicators of the Brazilian economy.