By-election could shape UK Labour leadership race

Polls are now closed in a by-election contest that could determine who becomes Britain’s next prime minister.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham hopes to become an MP — which would make him eligible to challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the ruling Labour Party.

Burnham — whose achievements as a northern mayor have led to him being dubbed the “king of the north” — is unusually popular for a Labour politician among the British public, and also came out on top as Labour members’ preferred next leader in a Survation poll earlier this year.

Burnham’s biggest rival in the contest is Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, who came second in the seat at the last general election in 2024. But while the right-wing populist Reform tops national polls, the party’s hopes of taking the Makerfield seat have been dimmed by the strength of Restore Britain, a small party to Reform’s right.

Defeating Reform UK in Makerfield would give Burnham credibility as a politican who can take on Reform leader Nigel Farage after Labour suffered heavy losses in local elections in May.

But Starmer has insisted he will fight any challenge from Burnham. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting has also made clear he will stand in any contest. If Burnham does win, Starmer’s cabinet will be closely watched for signs they could move against him in a bid to speed up an exit.

POLITICO has all the latest as the Makerfield votes are cast, the result is declared, and its consequences unfold.