Former U.S. Defense Secretary Penneda warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on for another six months and could become another "endless war" in the Middle East.
Quick Look
- Secretary of Defense Penneda warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict may drag on for another six months and become another "endless war" for the U.S. in the Middle East.
- He pointed out the turmoil in the Pentagon's command structure, believed that the main threats to the United States came from China, Russia and North Korea, and criticized Trump for damaging credibility by falsely claiming that the war was about to end.
- Paneda proposed three possible directions: withdrawing directly, continuing the deadlock, or controlling the Strait of Horz, and worried that the long-term deployment of frontline US troops would affect morale and public trust.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The conflict has been ongoing for more than half a century, resulting from geopolitical tensions and military confrontation. During the Obama administration, Paneda served as director of the CIA and secretary of defense with senior national security experience. Recently, there have been internal disputes among U.S. national defense leaders, and Secretary of the Army Driscoll resigned after a clash with Secretary of War Hughes, leading to unstable leadership.
Former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned that the war between the United States and Iran may drag on for another six months. As U.S. President Trump struggles to find a solution to this controversial conflict, Paneda bluntly stated in an exclusive interview with the British newspaper "The Guardian" that this war, which has broken out for more than half a year, may become another "ever war" for the United States in the Middle East, and there is still no end in sight.
Paneda served as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Secretary of Defense during the Obama administration. He said that the United States and Iran have clearly reached a terrible stalemate with few options to end the war, and suggested that the conflict is heading towards "another failed war" in the Middle East like Iraq and Afghanistan.
Please read on...
He further pointed out that due to the recent resignation of U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll after a dispute with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, the turmoil in the Pentagon's command structure made people feel "leaderless."
Paneda particularly emphasized that in today's dangerous world, the main threats to the United States come from China, Russia and North Korea, and the chaos in the Pentagon undoubtedly sends a dangerous signal to these major opponents that the United States' military power and defense capabilities are weak.
In response to Paneda's criticism, Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell countered that the War Department was "on full fire" under the leadership of Hegseth. The chaotic claims were baseless and an insult to the professionals who worked hard to defend the country. This is "what reform looks like."
Regarding Trump's current situation, Paneda believes that he is facing a dilemma and proposed three possible directions. The first is to withdraw directly and admit that this is a "lost war". But Paneda believes that it will be difficult for Trump to lower his dignity and do so. The second is to continue the current stalemate. Both sides continue to carry out retaliatory strikes in an attempt to avoid triggering a more dangerous all-out war, but both refuse to negotiate or surrender. However, this will lead to the outcome that all parties fear most, that is, the Middle East will once again fall into a protracted and time-consuming war.
The third possibility is that the United States takes action to control the Strait of Hormuz and remove Iran's influence on the global trade chokepoint.
Paneda pointed out that unless there is a dramatic change in the attitude of the United States and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary goal, this war will be unwinnable for the United States.
In addition, Paneda criticized Trump for repeatedly falsely claiming that an agreement to end the war was about to be reached and that the Strait of Hormuz had been opened, which seriously damaged his political credibility and caused any threats he made now to be ignored by the outside world. Even Vice President J.D. Vance refused to call the current military conflict a "war" in a recent interview, and there was no guarantee that the conflict would end before the U.S. midterm elections in November.
Finally, Paneda expressed concern about the situation of U.S. troops on the front lines. He cited the recent record of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been continuously deployed for more than 260 days without docking at a port, as an example. He pointed out that the military endlessly deployed personnel to war zones without a rotation plan, which not only led to the deterioration of the living conditions and mental health of the officers and soldiers on the ship, but also caused many Americans to lose trust in the military's ability to properly take care of front-line soldiers.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Meimei clashes will remain dormant for the next six months, with both sides continuing to retaliate but avoiding a full escalation.
Likely · Within months
The United States will step up its military presence or surveillance of Holzheim over the next three months to curb Iranian influence
Possible · Within months
The deployment of U.S. military personnel on the front lines will continue to break through normal, short-term unambiguous schedules
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Does the United States really have the resources and political will to maintain a long-term military presence in the Middle East?
- Is there a motivation or capacity to escalate the conflict in Iran under the current impasse?
- What is the actual opening of the Strait of Holz and who has actual control?
- How are China, Russia and North Korea going to use the plight of the United States to expand their influence in the Middle East?





