Can Russia and China ever have a truly equal relationship?
In a partnership in which one side relies on the other for both export revenues and critical imports, the notion of equality is questionable
Quick Look
- Despite Russia's claims of equality, its strategic partnership with China appears imbalanced, with Russia heavily reliant on China for trade after Western sanctions.
- The shift followed the 2014 Ukraine crisis, leading Russia to secure a major natural gas deal with China, replacing Europe as its primary energy market.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Russia and China have been "comprehensive strategic partners" since 2019, sharing a goal of countering Western dominance. This partnership intensified after the 2014 Ukraine crisis and subsequent EU sanctions, which prompted Russia to seek alternative markets for its gas exports.
China and Russia are not formal allies, but their ties have grown significantly closer in recent years. The two countries have been “comprehensive strategic partners of coordination for a new era” since 2019, often sharing the goal of countering Western dominance in the international arena. But which nation holds the upper hand in this relationship?
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on an article in The Wall Street Journal on relations between Moscow and Beijing, said on July 14 that the Russian-Chinese partnership is “based on the principle of equality”. However, if China is Russia’s largest trading partner while Russia accounts for only about 4 per cent of China’s foreign trade, can the relationship really be considered equal?
Before the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2014, the European Union, rather than China, was Russia’s most significant economic partner. In 2013, EU member states accounted for roughly 57 per cent of Russian exports and 46.5 per cent of its imports. At the time, Russia was a major supplier of natural gas to Europe, particularly Germany. Thanks to the Nord Stream pipelines, Berlin received relatively cheap energy from Russia, which helped fuel Germany’s economic growth.
Things began to change after the 2014 removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the conflict in the Donbas. The Kremlin’s actions prompted the EU to start imposing sanctions on Moscow.
Aware that the Kremlin was unlikely to resume business as usual with Europe, Russian strategic planners sought alternative markets for the country’s gas exports. China appeared to be the best option.
President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a 30-year, US$400 billion natural gas deal in May 2014. Russia’s energy giant Gazprom agreed to supply China with 38 billion cubic metres (1.34 trillion cubic feet) of gas annually through an agreement finalised with the China National Petroleum Corporation.
Open Questions
- How will the economic imbalance affect the long-term strategic partnership?
- Will Russia find other markets to diversify its export reliance?
