China Faces Strongest Rainfall Since Flood Season Began
Quick Look
- China is experiencing its most intense rainfall since the start of the flood season, with the Yangtze River basin heavily affected.
- Experts warn of potential geological disasters and flash floods due to saturated soil.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
China is experiencing its strongest rainfall since the start of the flood season. The current rainfall process is characterized by high intensity and prominent extremity, particularly along the Yangtze River. Experts attribute this to a stable subtropical high, active convection in the south, and favorable conditions for a concentrated rain belt along the Yangtze.
中新社北京5月25日电 (记者 陈溯)中国近日出现入汛以来最强降水过程。记者25日从中国气象局获悉，江淮、江汉、江南北部一带已进入本轮降雨最强时段，强度大、极端性突出。
24日，西北地区东部、江淮、江南北部及四川东部等地出现强降雨，陕西汉中、河南信阳、四川巴中、江西上饶与景德镇、湖北中部、安徽北部、江苏中部、浙江西部等局地出现大暴雨，局地降下特大暴雨。
本轮降雨的一个突出特点是长江沿线降雨强度大、极端性突出。
中央气象台首席预报员张涛解释，当前副热带高压位置清晰且稳定，南方对流活动旺盛，冷暖配置有利于在长江沿线形成集中降雨带。此次强降雨并非普通锋面降雨，而是典型的长江流域暖区对流降雨，这也是雨势猛烈、局地极端性极强的主要原因。当前，南海夏季风虽未在平均指标达到正式爆发的气象条件，但南海偏南风持续稳定，与已经爆发的印度洋孟加拉湾夏季风一起向中国长江流域持续输送水汽，已达到盛夏季节的水汽供给水平，为强降雨提供了充足“原料”。
“长江流域降雨不会中断，将从对流性降雨转为以层云为主的稳定性降雨，小到中雨持续，暖区对流逐步南压，贵州、广西北部、滇东、黔南一带将成为后期局地极端降水的高危区域。”张涛说，本轮降雨还伴随短时强降水、雷暴大风或冰雹等强对流天气，河南南部、安徽中西部、湖北南部等地部分地区将有10级以上雷暴大风。
国家气象中心高级工程师李宇梅提醒，持续强降雨已导致多地土壤饱和，安徽南部、湖北东北部与西部、浙江西部、湖南西北部、江西东北部、重庆中北部等地地质灾害气象风险高；安徽南部与西部、湖北东北部等地山洪灾害可能性大；湖北东北部、安徽南部部分中小河流存在超保气象风险。大别山区、鄂皖赣交界山区、鄂皖南部山区地形起伏大、河道比降大，在持续降雨下极易发生滑坡、泥石流、山洪等次生灾害。(完)
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The rainfall in the Yangtze River basin will transition from convective to stable precipitation, with continuous light to moderate rain.
Very likely · Short term
Warm zone convection will gradually shift south, making Guizhou, northern Guangxi, eastern Yunnan, and southern Guizhou high-risk areas for localized extreme precipitation.
Likely · Medium term
Areas in southern Anhui, northeastern and western Hubei, western Zhejiang, northwestern Hunan, northeastern Jiangxi, and northern/central Chongqing face high meteorological risk for geological disasters.
Very likely · Short term
Areas in southern and western Anhui, and northeastern Hubei have a high possibility of flash floods.
Very likely · Short term
Open Questions
- What is the exact duration of the current rainfall process?
- What are the specific economic impacts of the heavy rainfall and potential disasters?
- What measures are being taken by authorities to mitigate the risks?
- How does this rainfall compare to historical events in the region?
