China's Consumer Spending Slowdown Continues Amid Weak Demand

BEIJING — China's consumer spending slowdown persisted in June, with growth during one of the country's largest online shopping festivals weakening sharply from a year earlier.

Total online sales during the annual "618" shopping event from May 13 to June 18 grew by 4% from a year earlier, a sharp drop from the 15.2% growth recorded during the festival last year, retail data firm Syntun said late Monday.

The figures add to signs that household spending remains a weak spot in China's economy despite stronger performance in exports and technology-related sectors.

Retail sales fell 0.6% in May from a year ago, marking the first decline since China emerged from pandemic restrictions in 2022.

"The divergence between high-tech/AI and property/consumption continues to widen in both industrial production and capital market data," Goldman Sachs' Hui Shan said in a note Monday.

"Top leaders' domestic travel, recent policy communications, and our on-the-ground channel checks all suggest these trends will persist."

The firm lowered its forecast for second-quarter real GDP growth to 4.5% from a year earlier, down from a previous estimate of 4.7%, while keeping the full-year outlook unchanged at 4.7%.

The 618 shopping festival offered one of the latest snapshots of consumer demand, with spending growth remaining subdued despite promotional efforts by major retailers.

Syntun's estimate of 934 billion yuan ($137.86 billion) included same-day "instant" delivery orders and group purchases.

Among e-commerce platforms, Alibaba's Tmall led in sales, followed by JD.com and ByteDance's Douyin, but the segment saw only 0.9% sales growth, the Syntun report showed.

Secondhand electronics platform ATRenew said sales of preowned products grew by nearly 80% from a year ago during the 618 shopping period, highlighting demand for lower-cost goods.

China's online retail sector received a boost last year from state subsidies that encouraged consumers to trade in older electronics for newer models.

This year, spending patterns shifted. Instead of the 400% subsidy-driven growth in home appliance sales seen during the previous 618 shopping festivals, demand for home cleaning services surged this year, said Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC, citing figures disclosed by JD.com.

"Fashion did well, lifestyle, beauty, and health supplements are also doing really, really well. So people are taking good care of themselves, they're looking good, and they want to go out and experience the world," Cooke said on CNBC's "The China Connection" on Friday.

He also noted a surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related hardware and the growing use of AI tools by online shopping platforms, which have boosted brands' profit margins.

However, the broader economic impact of AI remains uncertain.

"AI-related job displacement could amplify macroeconomic headwinds and delay, if not derail, the recovery in the property market and household consumption," Goldman's Shan said.