Democratic Party Identification Surges to Largest Lead in Over a Decade, Gallup Poll Shows

A growing number of Americans now identify as Democrats, a shift that presents fresh political headwinds for President Donald Trump and the Republican party ahead of the November midterms, according to a new poll.

The latest Gallup data shows 31 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 25 percent who identify as Republicans.

That six-point advantage is the largest Democratic lead in party identification in more than a decade.

The findings add to recent signs of political trouble for Trump, whose approval ratings remain near historic lows. His tariffs, a central pillar of his economic policy, are broadly unpopular and were recently limited by the Supreme Court. The war with Iran, one of the major initiatives of his second term, has continued for months with no clear end in sight; multiple polls show most Americans oppose the conflict.

With polling trends moving against them, some Republican lawmakers and strategists have warned about a potential shellacking in the midterms, which historically see the president’s party lose seats in Congress.

In the Gallup survey, Democrats’ advantage widened further when independents — who accounted for 44 percent of respondents — were asked which major party they leaned toward.

Forty-nine percent of respondents identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with 39 percent who identified as or leaned Republican, a 10-point gap and the largest since 2008.

A year ago, by comparison, the margin was far narrower: 46 percent identified or leaned Democratic, versus 43 percent for Republicans.

The last time the GOP held the advantage in party identification, when including so-called leaners, was the fourth quarter of 2024, which coincided with Trump’s presidential election. During that period, they held a 4-point lead over Democrats.

Over time, partisan identification tends to ebb and flow, with the advantage swinging back and forth between the two parties every few years.

“When things are going well in the country, party identification shifts in the direction of the party in charge,” Gallup senior editor Jeffrey Jones told The New York Times. “When things are going poorly, like they are now with an unpopular Republican president and people unhappy with the state of the nation, people are moving away from the party in charge.”

“What we are seeing now is similar to the end of the George W. Bush administration, when he was pretty unpopular,” Jones added. “Democrats had a big lead in party identification, which was then a prelude to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were big victories for Democrats.”

With the midterm elections — which will decide control of the House and Senate — now fast approaching, Trump has signaled he will campaign nationwide for Republicans.

He has largely framed the vote as a referendum on himself. “Pretend I’m on the ballot,” he told Fox News in August. This month, he is also set to host the first-ever GOP midterm convention.