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The G-20 summit was held in India on 9-10 September in 2023. Chinese President Xi Jinping did not attend this summit. But then there was no speculation about his involvement till the last moments.
China had made it clear about a week ago that Xi Jinping would not go to New Delhi to attend the G-20 summit.
Now this week there is BRICS Summit in New Delhi on 12th and 13th September but China has not confirmed the visit of President Xi Jinping.
China's Foreign Ministry said till Wednesday evening that there is no information regarding this yet. The Indian Foreign Ministry has also said the same thing.
Many people are wondering why China is not confirming. Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at think tank Brookings Institution, wrote on Twitter, "China had announced Xi Jinping's visit to Kyrgyzstan for the SCO summit on August 26. That means about four days before his departure. I don't know whether this is something related to protocol or there is some other reason behind it, as if China is waiting for India to make the announcement first.
Defense analyst Praveen Sahni is also surprised by China's stance. “This is unusual for China,” he wrote on Twitter. It is not yet announcing whether President Xi Jinping will attend the 18th BRICS summit to be held in Delhi or not.
“The summit is now just two days away. It seems that like the G20 of 2023, this time also the Chinese delegation can be led by Prime Minister Li Chiang. If Xi Jinping does not come, it will be a big blow to India's role in BRICS.
However, Ananth Krishnan, author of India's China Challenge, does not consider this to be very unusual. Krishnan has written, "The lack of confirmation from China's Foreign Ministry even on Wednesday is not in itself a sign of anything special. It is not unusual for China to announce a trip two days in advance and this is generally the protocol followed. If there is any big bilateral state visit, it can be announced three-four days in advance.
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India's changed stance
If Xi Jinping comes to the BRICS summit, it will be his first visit to India in almost seven years. BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and seven other countries.
BRICS is seen as an alternative to the US-dominated world and US President Donald Trump has threatened it several times.
In June 2020, 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers were killed in clashes along the nearly 2,200 mile long border between the two countries, after which the relations between the two countries were badly affected.
Both countries have many good reasons to stabilize relations. These also include concerns about President Trump's uncertain foreign policy regarding India.
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Sadanand Dhume, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, wrote in the Wall Street Journal, "There is no magic reset button to completely normalize relations." There are many reasons for differences between India and China. These include clashing border claims with each other, competition to lead the developing countries of the so-called Global South and deep differences regarding China's close partnership with Pakistan. In such a situation, real reconciliation is not easy.
Former Indian Ambassador to China Gautam Bambawale considers it premature to talk about a reset in India-China relations. Bambawale told Sadanand Dhume that the clashes of 2020 had "pushed relations back 10 steps, while the recent signs of thawing indicate "at most three steps forward".
After the 2020 violence, India increased the deployment of thousands of troops along the border, banned about 60 Chinese apps including TikTok and WeChat, effectively excluded Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE from expanding India's 5G telecom network, suspended tourist visas for Chinese citizens and deepened cooperation with the Quad grouping comprising the US, Japan and Australia.
Why are changes happening?
But in the last two years, there has been a partial improvement in India-China relations. In 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia.
Last year, during his first visit to China in nearly seven years, Modi had gone to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting. This is a security alliance led by China and Russia.
Both the countries have resumed high-level talks on the border dispute and have made agreements regarding military patrolling in the two disputed areas. In October, Indian airline IndiGo started flights from Kolkata to Guangzhou, resuming direct flights between India and China after five years.
After all, what is the reason for these changes? This was indicated last week by India's former Chief of Defense Staff General Anil Chauhan.
Chouhan had said, “Our relations with China cannot be held hostage merely because of the issue of border disputes. China and India are two big powers in Asia, big economies and ancient civilizations. This thing is also important. "The two countries cooperate in some areas, compete for influence and markets, and have differing views on some aspects of the regional as well as global order."
Manoj Kewalramani, a China expert at the think tank Takshashila Institution, told Wall Street Journal columnist Sadanand Dhume that India may have quietly given up on its insistence that progress toward normalizing ties would depend on China agreeing to the pre-2020 border situation. He says that there is a calm understanding in New Delhi that the world has changed and there is a power difference between China and India."
Sadanand Dhume has written, "Trump's uncertain foreign policy has weakened the position of people in India who take a tough stance towards China. In his second term, Trump has imposed heavy tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, has increased closeness with Pakistan and has also given less importance to the Quad. He has also considered the possibility of forming a G-2 arrangement with China.
Before the SCO summit on September 1, the Chinese President had traveled abroad only once this year. In June, he paid a state visit to North Korea for the first time in seven years. Meanwhile, the world has been reaching out to China.
Trump's impact
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US-based think tank, more than 20 leaders, including US President Donald Trump, have visited Beijing in the first half of the year.
Xi Jinping had reached Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, to attend the SCO summit on August 30. After this, Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Egypt for the first time in a decade. China has strengthened its presence in Egypt's Suez Canal Zone through a bilateral economic and trade cooperation zone.
After this, Xi can attend another summit of leaders of non-Western countries, BRICS. This will be Xi's first visit to India since 2019 and also his first visit to India after the deadly border clashes between the two countries in 2020.
According to Chinese customs data, bilateral trade between China and India increased by 12.4 percent last year to a record $155 billion, more than double the $71.6 billion recorded 10 years ago. In the first seven months of this year, bilateral trade increased by 23 percent compared to the same period last year.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program of the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center, told the British newspaper Financial Times that in China's view, India is currently going through a period of change due to Trump's policies. Therefore, the measures to increase India's reach and improve relations are aimed at bringing New Delhi closer to China.
He said, "China wants to influence India's strategic choices. It wants an India that does not see China as a threat. It also wants India not to stand with America because of China."
In an article published in Chinese state media after the recent India-China talks in Beijing, People's Daily commentator Ding Gang said that both sides "recognize that American influence has impacted their relations and has been a constant, unspoken presence. But now this situation is changing. The American shadow that was so clearly present in the conversation several years ago is gradually fading. Not least because of diplomatic efforts on both sides, But because a deep change is going on in the international system itself."
