Economic Hardship and Repression Deepen in Iran Amidst Regional Conflict

In the city of Isfahan, south of the Iranian capital Tehran, the once-bustling bazaar is much quieter than usual.

Shoppers still wander the streets and laneways, but the upheaval the country has experienced over the last five months is weighing heavily.

"Some days, I sit in my shop, and there are no customers," Vahid, whose name has been changed by the ABC to protect his identity, said in a voice note.

"No-one even asks for the prices. People are completely devastated.

"They don't know whether to save their money, spend it on food or buy something else.

"People are genuinely desperate, and don't know how to move forward."

Iran was facing significant economic pressures before the war, which was launched by the United States and Israel on February 28.

Surging inflation and the devaluation of the local currency, the Iranian Rial, had been two of the drivers of large-scale protests against the hardline Islamic regime in January — dissent that was met by a brutal, deadly crackdown by Iranian security forces.

Leila, whose name has also been changed by the ABC to protect her identity, said the strict security environment in Iran had only tightened further since the war began.

She said when people step outside their homes for just a few minutes, they are "confronted with checkpoints and a constant atmosphere of security and surveillance".

"Simply passing by them fills us with fear and anxiety," she said.

"In other countries where people see the police, they feel safe — but in our country, sadly, it's the opposite.

"The moment we see them, our whole body starts shaking, even when we haven't done anything wrong."

The ABC has been inside Iran twice since the war began, but access is tightly controlled. It is rare, if not impossible, to get Iranians to speak critically about the country's situation in person, due to fears of recriminations.

Yet three Iranians have been able to share their insights on life under the regime, as the war passes its fifth month and US President Donald Trump threatens a return to all-out fighting if no long-term peace deal can be struck.

"Right now it's like two stray dogs tearing each other apart, and we're waiting to see what happens," Shadi, whose name has been changed, told the ABC from Tehran.

"We're the ones caught in the middle, the sacrificial victims.

"You know how a sheep gets slaughtered, whether it's for a funeral or a wedding? That's us. Or like florists, they sell flowers for both weddings and funerals.

"We're being sacrificed in this war."

Inside Tehran's brutal crackdown

Before the war began on February 28, attention on Iran had been focused on the bloody crackdown on thousands of protesters who had rallied against the regime.

Mr Trump had even encouraged Iranians to take to the streets, and claimed: "Help is on its way."

But for many people inside Iran, that specific assistance never came, and the war that followed drew attention from the human rights concerns.

Trials and sentences, including executions, for dissidents have continued at an alarming pace.

"From the beginning of this year, more than 400 executions happened in Iran," said Arina Moradi, a member of the Hengaw Organisation for Human Rights, an independent Kurdish group monitoring human rights violations in Iran.

"From this number, 57 were political prisoners or prisoners of conscience, and among them are a high number [of] people who were detained during the January protests.

"So the consequences of this repression is still going on, and it's very serious and critical from what we are witnessing."

The organisation monitors social media feeds that are a seemingly endless list of daily, if not hourly, updates of arrests, sentences and executions.

On Tuesday, Hengaw announced the public execution in Isfahan of two men involved in the January protests — Abolfazl Sepahi Badjani, 23, and Amirhossein Safari Hosseinabadi, 29.

"It's still going on, and it's even easier for the regime to use this lack of international attention, because the international attention shifted to the regional conflict," Ms Moradi said.

Iran's regime 'frightened from its own population'

The surge in executions in Iran is no surprise to Rana Dadpour, founder of diaspora advocacy group AUSIRAN.

Dr Dadpour, who is also a research fellow at James Cook University, said the Iranian government uses this lever as a tactic to send a message to the population and scare people into silence.

"Every single time that the regime feels like an existential threat to itself, whether due to attacks by other countries or national uprisings, demonstrations, and protests, it always doubles down on executions," she said.

Despite facing threats from attacks by Israel and the US, Dr Dadpour said the regime was "more frightened from its own population".

"It is scared that … there might be a national uprising as well to double up the pressure on the regime, and that's why there's a surge in executions.

"It does everything it can to basically scare them and send the message that there shouldn't be any uprising. If [people] rise up, there will be more killings."

While dissent and festering anger against the regime is obvious, there are still significant numbers backing the hard-line theocracy — as seen by the crowds that swamped the casket of former ayatollah Ali Khamenei in recent weeks, and who have pledged their lives to support the regime.

It was a similar case when the ABC was given rare access to the country in May on the condition that we remained in Tehran and worked with a translator from a pre-approved local media company.

At a pro-regime rally at Tehran's Enqelab Square, the ABC saw many women dressed in the traditional chador who vowed to fight and die for leaders accused of brutalising them.

Just how rusted on those elements of the Iranian community will be, if the war continues for much longer, is unclear, especially as parts of the country experience blackouts and financial uncertainty.

Energy grid and finances under strain

In the height of summer, with temperatures regularly approaching 50 degrees Celsius in some locations, daily rolling power cuts have been ordered by the regime to ensure the energy grid does not collapse.

Vahid said the electricity was often cut for around two hours a day, during peak business hours.

"Take a fish seller who needs to keep fish cold, or a butcher whose refrigerators stop working for two hours — they can't keep opening the fridge doors; they have to keep them shut to preserve the temperature," he told the ABC.

"On top of that, the shops are dark because there's no electricity, and they can't serve customers or sell goods — the same goes for clothing shops.

"Businesses across the board are suffering financial losses because of the power blackouts. They can't earn enough to pay their rent, and if they do pay the rent, what's left to put food on the table for their families?"

In recent days, video shared on social media has shown massive queues at Iranian petrol stations across the country, as fuel shortages cause major disruption for the population of more than 90 million.

"I can see this worry on everyone's face," Vahid said.

"Today at work, I noticed that the little bit of cheerfulness people still had last week has completely disappeared."

Where to from here?

Shadi questioned how much longer the situation can last.

"If everything were really fine, why are armed patrols still roaming the streets until 1am?" she said.

"Even 12-year-old kids are carrying rifles. There's complete chaos in this country."

For Leila, the source of that chaos is from within.

"We may blame America and Israel for starting the war, but this [is] the fate of a country that, for 40 years, has woken up every day to chants of 'Death to America' and 'Death to other countries' from morning until night."

Vahid said it was his opinion that this war could lead to several possible outcomes.

"First, military pressure becomes so overwhelming that the Islamic Republic and the decision makers surrender completely, accept all US demands, and perhaps even formally recognise Israel," he said.

"A second possibility is that the military campaign destroys [the] regime's entire power structure, creating a golden opportunity for the people to deliver the final blow to the rotten foundations of this regime.

"If that happens, however, I think there could also be serious clashes between the regime's supporters and general public.

"In any case, people have become deeply hopeless. But their anger has not disappeared. Their hope has faded, but their anger remains."