El Niño Arrives, Potentially Reaching Historic Strength by Year-End
Quick Look
- El Niño has arrived, with US weather agencies predicting it could intensify into a historic event by year-end.
- This natural climate phenomenon warms Pacific Ocean temperatures, causing global weather pattern shifts, and is expected to exacerbate existing climate change impacts.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
El Niño is a natural climate occurrence that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to worldwide changes in winds and rainfall patterns. Scientists expect the current El Niño event to intensify into the end of the year.
The phenomenon El Nino has arrived, the US weather agency said on Thursday, and scientists expect the pattern synonymous with droughts, floods and soaring temperatures will intensify into the end of the year, potentially to historic strength.
El Nino is a natural climate occurrence that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds and rainfall patterns and erratic weather.
Scientists fear it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.
“El Nino is here, and it could be one for the history books,” said meteorologist Haley Thiem in an explainer video from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In its latest advisory, scientists at NOAA said there is a 63 per cent chance “of a very strong El Nino during November-January that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950”.
Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. This includes drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
A very strong El Nino event ranking among the largest in historical records since 1950.
Likely
Intensification of El Niño into the end of the year.
Very likely
Open Questions
- What specific historical events will this El Niño be compared to?
- What will be the precise economic impacts of the predicted droughts and floods?
- How will the intensified El Niño affect specific regions beyond those mentioned?
- What measures are being taken by governments to mitigate the extreme weather events?
