El Nino Climate Phenomenon Set to Return, Threatening Hydropower and Boosting Fossil Fuel Use
Moderate-to-strong El Nino expected to emerge globally in May and persist through year-end, warns China Meteorological Administration
Quick Look
- China Meteorological Administration forecasts moderate-to-strong El Nino to emerge globally in May 2026 and develop throughout the year.
- The climate phenomenon, occurring every two to seven years, threatens hydropower-dependent regions with droughts or flooding, potentially forcing power stations to reduce output and increasing reliance on oil and gas.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
El Nino is a climate phenomenon occurring every two to seven years, causing increased average global temperatures. It can trigger both droughts and flooding, significantly impacting hydropower generation in affected regions.
The climate phenomenon happens every two to seven years and causes an increase in average global temperatures. A strong El Nino can bring either droughts or torrential rains and flooding, both of which may force hydropower stations to reduce their output or shut down entirely – increasing the need for other power sources, including oil and gas. "El Nino could hit hydropower-dependent regions hard, pushing them to burn more fossil fuels for electricity instead. That would raise both carbon emissions and the cost of imported energy, creating a damaging loop that worsens climate change and strains economies," said Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the National Climate Centre. The China Meteorological Administration said on Saturday that moderate-to-strong El Nino conditions were forecast to emerge globally next month and develop throughout the rest of the year.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Regions dependent on hydropower will experience increased energy costs and carbon emissions
Very likely · Within months
Some nations will need to increase fossil fuel imports to compensate for hydropower shortfalls
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Which specific regions will be most affected by the upcoming El Nino
- How severe will the droughts or flooding be
- What mitigation measures are governments planning
