Eurasian Development Bank Lowers Russia GDP Growth Forecast for 2026
Quick Look
- The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has revised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth, lowering it to 1% for 2026 from a previous 1.4%.
- Projections indicate a 1.5% growth in 2027, accelerating to 1.8% in 2028.
- The bank also anticipates the Russian Central Bank's key rate to reach 12% by end-2026.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has updated its macroeconomic forecast for Russia. The forecast includes projections for GDP growth, inflation, key interest rates, and currency exchange rates.
ALMATY, June 25. /TASS/. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has lowered its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth for 2026 from 1.4% to 1%, while in 2027 the country’s economy is projected to grow by 1.5%, according to a macroeconomic forecast seen by TASS.
The Russian economy is expected to shift to recovery in the second half of 2026, with growth projected to accelerate to 1.8% in 2028.
The Russian Central Bank’s key rate will reach 12% per annum by the end of 2026, potentially declining to around 10% by the end of 2027, according to the development bank’s analysts. "The Bank of Russia will maintain a cautious approach to prevent a renewed acceleration of inflation," the forecast reads.
Inflation in Russia is also projected to slow to 5.3% by the end of this year, while in 2027-2028 it will stand at around 4.7%.
Analysts expect the average exchange rate of the national currency in 2026 at 76 rubles per dollar. Over the following two years, the rate is expected to weaken to an average of 89 rubles per dollar.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Russian Central Bank's key rate to reach 12% by end-2026, potentially declining to 10% by end-2027.
Likely · Medium term
Average exchange rate of 89 rubles per dollar over 2027-2028.
Possible · Medium term
Open Questions
- What specific factors led to the lowered GDP forecast?
- What are the long-term implications of the cautious monetary policy?
